[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170545
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
145 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

As of 17/0300 UTC, the low pressure and tropical wave located in
the eastern Atlantic developed into T.D. Six with center near
12.6N/34.1W. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt gusting to 40kt.
T.D. Six is moving west at about 12 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 10N-15N between 33W-36W. Please see
the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends across the central Atlantic with axis
from 25N58W to 16N59N, moving west at about 20 kt. The wave
coincides with a westward surge of abundant moisture as depicted
by SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery from 18N-29N between
56W-62W. No significant convection is related to this wave at
this time as Saharan dust and dry air surrounds this feature
inhibiting any activity.

A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean with axis
extending from 20N82W to 11N81W, moving west at about 20 kt. The
wave coincides with a maximum in potential vorticity over the SW
Caribbean mainly south of 20N between 76W-83W. Isolated moderate
convection prevails along and west of the wave axis between 82W-
86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to
14N32W then resumes west of the Special Features low near 10N35W
to 07N42W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 07N42W
to 07N52W. Aside from convection associated with the low along
34W, scattered moderate convection is from 11N-15N between 18W-
25W and from 06N-09N between 44W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the Arklatex region to the central
Rio Grande River valley near 29N100W providing low-level focus
for isolated showers and thunderstorms across much of southern
Texas and the lower Mississippi River valley. This activity
extends southward mainly west of 92W across the Gulf and east
coast of Mexico. The remainder of the basin is under the influence
of east- northeasterly flow aloft on the western periphery of an
upper- level low centered over the Florida Straits near 24N79W.
Isolated showers are observed across the area east of 88W. A
surface ridge extends from the central Atlantic across the
northern portion of the basin. Scatterometer data depicts a gentle
to moderate easterly flow over the area. Expect little change
during the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean. Please
refer to the section above for details. To the south, the presence
of the Monsoon Trough is enhancing convection south of 11N between
80W-84W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds
across the basin except between 70W-80W where fresh to strong
trades prevail. Expect during the next 24 hours for the tropical
wave over the western Caribbean to continue moving west across
Central America enhancing convection. Another tropical wave will
enter the eastern portion of the basin with convection affecting
the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.

...HISPANIOLA...

Southwesterly flow aloft is noted over the island supported by the
interaction of an upper-level low centered north of Cuba near
24N79W and an upper-level ridge centered over the central Atlantic
near 22N59W. Fair weather will continue through the next 24
hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

T.D. Six and a tropical wave are moving across the basin. Please
refer to the sections above for details. Isolated showers are
observed across the western Atlantic generally west of 73W as
strong easterly flow aloft is noted between an upper-level low
centered over the Florida Straits near 24N79W and an upper-level
anticyclonic circulation centered off the coast of the Mid-
Atlantic near 38N67W. The remainder of the area is under the
influence of a surface ridge anchored by a stationary 1026 mb
high centered near 31N54W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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