[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161721
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tropical wave is over the Eastern Atlantic about 500 nm
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands with axis from 14N31W to
06N31W. A 1008 mb low is embedded on the wave axis near 10N31W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-13N between 29W-35W.
The wave is in a moist environment with a noticeable 700 mb
signature. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for development during the next few days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form while the system moves
northwestward toward the central tropical Atlantic. Latest
Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a high chance of
tropical development within the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave is over the Central Atlantic from 19N54W to 07N55N
moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a moist environment as
depicted by the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery, however,
dry air with Saharan dust is wrapping around the west side of
the wave. The wave axis is best defined at the surface. Isolated
moderate convection is W of the wave axis from from 18N-22N
between 54W-58W. Similar convection is S of the wave axis from
05N-09N between 52W-60W.

Tropical wave is over the Central Caribbean from 18N76W to
09N76W moving W at 20 kt. The wave is a low amplitude wave.
The wave is in a moist environment as depicted by the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water Imagery. The wave is defined both at the
surface and 700 mb. Scattered moderate convection is W of the
wave axis from 13N-19N between 80W-85W. Similar convection is S
of the wave axis from 07N-11N between 72W-85W mostly associated
with the monsoon trough.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 18N16W to
13N20W to 10N31W to 07N41W. The ITCZ extends from 07N41W to
08N50W to the coast of South America near 07N58W. Besides the
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered
moderate convection is along the coast of Africa from 10N-18N
between 14W-19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends over Central Texas from 34N95W to
29N100W with isolated moderate convection reaching the Texas
coast. The Gulf of Mexico has 10-20 kt SE surface flow.
Scattered moderate convection is over the Bay of Campeche from
18N-22N between 93W-97W. Isolated moderate convection is
elsewhere over the E Gulf E of 89W. Scattered showers are over
Florida. In the upper levels, a small upper level low is
centered over the SW Gulf of Mexico near 22N92W. Expect over the
next 24 hours for the frontal system to remain N of the Gulf.
Also expect additional convection over the western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the Central Caribbean. See above.
Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the NW Caribbean. 15-30 kt
tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along
the coast of N Colombia. Further S, scattered moderate
convection is over Panama, and Costa Rica, mostly due to the
monsoon trough. In the upper levels, an upper level low is
centered over the Bahamas near 23N76W. Expect over the next 24
hours for the tropical wave to move west over the central and
western Caribbean with convection. Expect little change
elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

Mostly fair weather is presently over Hispaniola. Expect
little change over the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are over the Atlantic. See above. Scattered
showers are over the W Atlantic from 22N-30N between 70W-80W to
include the Bahamas. A 1026 mb high is located over the W
Atlantic near 33N68W. Another 1026 mb high is located over the
central Atlantic near 32N53W. Expect the tropical waves to be
the dominate weather features for the next several days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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