[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040548
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Earl is centered near 17.4N 87.6W at 04/0300 UTC or
about 35 nm E of Belize City Belize moving W at 13 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous strong
convection is along the coast of Belize from 15N-19N between 85W-
9 W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is elsewhere over the NW Caribbean and Central
America from 11N-21N between 83W-93W. Hurricane Earl is close to
making landfall. Earl is expected to also produce total rain
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize,
Honduras, Guatemala, and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico,
through Thursday night. These rains could result in life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides. A storm surge will
raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels along the immediate coast of Belize and the eastern
Yucatan peninsula. See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/ WTNT35 KNHC and the full
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from
19N42W to 08N44W moving west 20 kt over the past 24 hours. A
1013mb low is embedded on the wave axis near 15N42W. Wave
coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models.
Wave is embedded within a low-amplitude surge of moisture with
Saharan dry air and dust NW of the wave, as seen on the SSMI
Total Precipitable Water Imagery. Scattered moderate convection
is west of the wave axis from 08N-11N between 43W-47W.

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from
21N54W to 10N55W moving west at 15 kt over the past 24 hours.
The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the
global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen
on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. Isolated moderate
convection is west of the wave axis from 14N-20N between 54W-59W.
Isolated moderate convection is also from 08N-11N between 50W-
57W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 14N17W to 13N28W to 10N39W. The ITCZ begins west
of a tropical wave near 09N45W and continues to the coast of
South America near 09N60W. Besides the convection mentioned in
the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is from
07N-10N between 20W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge axis extends from the Atlantic to the NE Gulf of
Mexico along 28N. Further south, the leading edge of
precipitation from Hurricane Earl has reached the Yucatan
Channel and the eastern Bay of Campeche. 10-15 kt mostly
easterly winds are noted over the remainder of the Gulf.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over N
Florida and the NE Gulf from 29N-31N between 83W-88W. In the
upper levels...an upper level high is centered over the N Gulf
near 30N89W. Expect over the next 24 hours for an increase of
winds and convection over S Mexico, and the the Bay of Campeche
due to Hurricane Earl.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The prime focus tonight is Hurricane Earl about to make
landfall. See above. Elsewhere, 15-25 kt tradewinds are over the
E Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate convection is S of Cuba from
20N-22N between 78W-80W, and E of Honduras from 13N-17N between
78W-82W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is inland over
N Colombia from 04N-10N between 73W-78W. In the upper levels, an
upper level low is centered N of Hispaniola near 23N70W with
strong subsidence.

...HISPANIOLA...

Currently, scattered showers linger over Hispaniola. Expect more
scattered showers Thursday afternoon and evening during maximum
heating hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers are over the N Bahamas. A 1026 mb high is
centered over the eastern Atlantic near 33N34W with a ridge axis
extending west to N Florida. Two tropical waves are over the
tropical Atlantic. See above. Also of note in the upper levels,
a large upper level high is centered over the central Atlantic
near 24N44W. Expect the tropical waves to move west with
convection for the next several days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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