[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040006
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
806 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Earl was upgraded to a category one hurricane at 2100 UTC after a
NOAA hurricane hunter measured maximum sustained wind speed of 65
kt and wind gusts to 80 kt. Hurricane Earl is centered near 17.1N
86.0W or about 59 nm NE of Isla Roatan Honduras moving W at 12 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Numerous heavy
showers and scattered tstms are S of 21N W of 80W, including
Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador and the Yucatan
Peninsula. The rainbands of Earl are also affecting the rest of
Central America and SW Caribbean waters W of 78W. See latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/
WTNT35 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave extends from 08N-18N with axis near 37W, moving W
at 25 kt within the last 24 hours. Even though the wave is in a
favorable deep layer wind shear region, Saharan dry air and dust
are in the wave environment, thus hindering the development of
deep convection. CIRA LPW imagery from surface to 850 mb show dry
air wrapping the northern and western sides of the wave axis.
Isolated showers are possible from 10N-18N between 34W and 46W.

Tropical wave extends from 11N-20N with axis near 52W, moving W
at 25 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of
favorable to neutral deep layer wind shear. CIRA LPW imagery from
surface to 850 mb show the wave is embedded in a very moist
environment that along with a middle level diffluent environment support
scattered showers west of the axis from 15N-21N between 51W and
56W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from near 14N17W to 12N30W to 08N40W
to 12N50W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical
waves...scattered moderate convection is from 02N-11N between
37W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level anticyclonic circulation is centered S of Mississippi
over the N Gulf near 29N87W and provides much of the Gulf with
E-NE flow aloft maintaining mostly fair conditions for a majority
of the basin tonight. However...given instability and possible
embedded weak areas of diffluence in the ridging...isolated
showers and tstms are occurring across the central Gulf waters
from 22N-27N between 86W and 92W. At the surface...weak ridging is
N of 24N generating light to occasional moderate NE to E winds.
Hurricane Earl will make landfall in Belize tonight or early Thursday
morning tracking W-NW into the far southern SW Gulf waters by
Friday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The primary focus in the basin is Hurricane Earl currently
tracking W across the NW Caribbean. See the special features
section for more details. For wind information associated with
Earl see the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. Elsewhere...fresh to
strong trades trail to the east of Earl between 68W-81W due to the
pressure gradient between high pressure anchored to the north
across the SW North Atlc region and low pressure across northern
South America. Trades decrease gradually E of 68W into moderate
to fresh breeze levels as mostly clear skies prevail tonight. The
exception is S of 14N E of 69W where scattered heavy showers and
isolated tstms are observed. Earl is expected to make landfall in
Belize tonight or early Thursday morning bringing numerous
showers and scattered tstms...and potentially localized flooding
and mud slides to portions of Honduras...Guatemala...Belize...El
Salvador and the Yucatan peninsula during the remainder of the
week.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper level low is centered N-NE of the Island over SW N Atlc
waters. The upper low extends a trough SW to the north-central
Caribbean that along with upper ridging W of it generate diffluent
flow to support cloudiness and possible isolated showers across
Hispaniola tonight. Model guidance indicate weather conditions are
going to improve by Thu morning due in part to the presence of strong
deep layer wind shear in the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Atlantic ocean continues under the influence of a broad surface
ridge anchored by a pair of 1026 mb highs S-SW of the Azores
Islands. Little change expected the next two days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net