[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041021
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Earl is centered near 17.3N 88.9W at 04/0900 UTC or
about 43 nm WSW of Belize City Belize moving W at 13 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous strong
convection is over Belize from 16N-18N between 88W-90W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere
over the NW Caribbean and Central America from 13N-21N between
85W-91W. Hurricane Earl is now inland, and is forecast to weaken
to a tropical storm later this morning. Earl is expected to
produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions
of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the Yucatan peninsula of
Mexico, through tonight. These rains could result in life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides. See latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/
WTNT35 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from
20N45W to 07N44W moving west at 20 kt over the past 24 hours.
Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global
models. Wave is embedded within a low-amplitude surge of
moisture with Saharan dry air and dust NW of the wave, as seen
on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. Scattered moderate
convection is west of the wave axis from 08N-11N between 45W-
48W.

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from
21N55W to 09N56W moving west at 15 kt over the past 24 hours.
The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the
global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen
on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. Scattered moderate
convection is west of the wave axis from 17N-20N between 56W-60W.
Isolated moderate convection is also from 07N-11N between 52W-
57W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 12N17W to 13N30W to 08N42W. The ITCZ begins west
of a tropical wave near 09N45W and continues to the coast of
South America near 08N59W. Besides the convection mentioned in
the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to strong
convection is from 07N-11N between 22W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge axis extends from the Atlantic to the NE Gulf of
Mexico along 28N. Further south, the leading edge of
precipitation from Hurricane Earl has reached the Yucatan
Channel and the eastern Bay of Campeche. 10-15 kt mostly
easterly winds are noted over the remainder of the Gulf.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over N
Florida and the NE Gulf from 28N-31N between 84W-88W. In the
upper levels...an upper level high is centered over the N Gulf
near 30N89W. Expect over the next 24 hours for an increase of
winds and convection over S Mexico, and the the Bay of Campeche
due to Earl.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The prime focus today is Hurricane Earl inland over Belize. See
above. Elsewhere, 15-25 kt tradewinds are over the E Caribbean
Sea. Isolated moderate convection is S of Cuba from 19N-22N
between 78W-81W, and E of Nicaragua from 11N-16N between 78W-
80W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is inland
over N Colombia from 02N-10N between 73W-78W. In the upper
levels, an upper level low is centered N of Hispaniola near
23N70W producing scattered showers along the N coast of
Hispaniola.

...HISPANIOLA...

Currently, scattered showers linger over Hispaniola. Expect more
scattered showers this afternoon and evening during maximum
heating hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers are over the W Atlantic from 28N-31N between
77W-80W. A 1026 mb high is centered over the eastern Atlantic
near 34N31W with a ridge axis extending west to N Florida. Two
tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic. See above. Also
of note in the upper levels, a large upper level high is
centered over the central Atlantic near 24N44W. Expect the
tropical waves to move west with convection for the next several
days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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