[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N16W TO 6N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 4N28W 1N39W 1N46W THEN ACROSS THE EQUATOR AND INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N E OF 7W ACROSS THE
PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 9W-19W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N ACROSS THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 43W-54W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG THE
COAST OF TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE N GULF N OF 27N BETWEEN 86W-91W TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF
COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SE GULF S OF
27N E OF 86W TO OVER FLORIDA AND W CUBA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE FAR E GULF ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC. THE WEAK
TEXAS COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF THIS MORNING THEN MOVE
OUT OF THE GULF THIS WEEKEND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE N/CENTRAL GULF SUN AND MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH AMERICA/W TROPICAL ATLC IS GIVING
THE CARIBBEAN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT AGAIN THIS MORNING. LINGERING
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES
TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 14N E OF 81W TO OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...AND JAMAICA.
HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 76W-79W.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
THROUGH TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL PERSIST S OF
HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TODAY. AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ANALYZED AS A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM DOMINICA TO
15N68W AND WILL DRIFT N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH
SAT. TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SUN
THROUGH MON.

HISPANIOLA...

LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THE
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COULD GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC N OF THE CENTRAL ATLC
FRONT W OF 60W AND INTO THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A
1024 MB HIGH NEAR 32N70W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL
ATLC N OF 26N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH
32N38W ALONG 26N44W 23N59W TO 23N69W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO
24N75W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SE EXTENDING FROM
22N48W TO 17N57W WHERE A SHEAR LINE IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE
DOMINICA INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC UPPER TROUGH AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 28N34W TO 20N55W WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 20N55W
TO OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W. A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB
HIGH NEAR 25N30W. THE N PORTION OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT WILL
CONTINUE E AS THE REMAINDER BECOMES STATIONARY TODAY THEN WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS E THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NW WATERS SAT THEN EXTEND FROM 32N71W TO THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA SUN AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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