[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220527
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 5N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 2N28W 1N43W ACROSS THE EQUATOR AND INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 49W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 41W-48W. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 10W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
OVER TEXAS AND THE W GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT REMAINS INLAND OVER TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NW GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 88W-
93W TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SE GULF S OF 27N E OF 91W INCLUDING S
FLORIDA...CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE FAR E GULF ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT E-SE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH SAT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF FRI MORNING THEN STRETCH ALONG
26N E OF 90W SAT MORNING AND EXIT OUT OF THE GULF BY LATE SUN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE N/CENTRAL GULF BEHIND THE
FRONT SAT THEN SHIFT TO THE NE GULF SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH AMERICA/W TROPICAL ATLC IS GIVING
THE CARIBBEAN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT AGAIN TONIGHT. LINGERING
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES
TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 14N E OF 80W TO OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND E CUBA. HEAVIEST
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 76W-79W. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI.
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL PERSIST S OF HISPANIOLA AND INTO
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH FRI. AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING E TO W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT N
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES FRI THROUGH SAT. W ATLC SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS BERMUDA FRI THEN INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC SAT DIMINISHING TRADE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SUN.

HISPANIOLA...

LINGERING MOISTURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ISLAND AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS MOISTURE AND SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SAT WHEN THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NEAR ZONAL FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE ISLAND SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC N OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT W
OF 60W AND INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH
NEAR 32N70W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
N OF 26N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N41W
ALONG 24N52W 23N61W TO 23N71W WHERE IT DISSIPATES 26N77W. A
REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SE EXTENDING FROM 24N45W TO
19N51W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF
LINE FROM 27N36W TO 21N50W WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 21N50W TO OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN
ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 23N31W. THE N
PORTION OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT WILL CONTINUE E AS THE
REMAINDER BECOMES STATIONARY OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH SAT. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SE
ACROSS BERMUDA FRI AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SAT. A NEW COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS EARLY SAT THEN EXTEND FROM 32N71W
TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUN MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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