[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212323
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU APR 21 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND OVER W AFRICA CROSSING
LIBERIA. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR THE COAST OF LIBERIA AT 5.5N10W
AND CONTINUES TO 4N20W TO 2N30W TO 1N40W TO BRAZIL NEAR 0N50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-6N BETWEEN 14W-17W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-5S BETWEEN 31W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N72W. A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO E TEXAS NEAR 31N94W PRODUCING
GENTLE TO MODERATE SE-S WINDS WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS
FROM 30N92W TO 27N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE GULF
REGION IS UNDER A MAINLY WESTERLY WIND FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF FRI MORNING...STRETCH
ALONG 26N E OF 90W ON SAT MORNING AND PASS SE OF THE AREA BY
LATE SUN. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS SUPPORTS THIS FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED N OF THE
FORECAST REGION. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL PERSIST S OF
HISPANIOLA AND IN THE WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES THROUGH FRI.
THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT SE TOWARDS BERMUDA FRI AND MOVE WELL E
OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MON...DIMINISHING TRADE WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SW-W FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE
AREA. THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM SOUTH AMERICA AND THE EPAC WATERS ACROSS COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA AND ALSO ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WHERE ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS WITH LIKELY EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS NOTED.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC OFF THE COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N72W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 30N44W TO 24N60W TO THE W ATLANTIC AT
24N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 30N26W TO
24N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 38W-
45W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 23N33W.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC HIGH TO MOVE TO 30N66W...
FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE E TO 30N35W...FOR THE E
ATLANTIC FRONT TO FULLY DISSIPATE...AND FOR THE E ATLANTIC HIGH
TO MOVE NE TO 28N25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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