[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211735
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 21 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND OVER W AFRICA CROSSING
LIBERIA. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR THE COAST OF LIBERIA AT 5.5N10W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N20W TO 2N30W TO 1N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 0N50W. CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOW NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 24W AND 28W...AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 34W AND 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE SW
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING MAINLY GENTLE
TO MODERATE SE-S WINDS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THIS IS A THERMAL TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS NEAR OR OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE EVENING...THEN DRIFTS WESTWARD
DURING THE DAY AND DISSIPATES LATE IN THE DAY BEFORE
REDEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE EVENING. SOME CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH TODAY. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
REACHING THE COAST OF TEXAS N OF CORPUS CHRISTI. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF FRI MORNING...STRETCH
ALONG 26N E OF 90W ON SAT MORNING AND PASS SE OF THE AREA BY
LATE SUN. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS SUPPORTS THIS FRONT. THE GULF REGION IS UNDER A MAINLY
WESTERLY WIND FLOW ALOFT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED N OF THE
FORECAST REGION. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL PERSIST S OF
HISPANIOLA AND IN THE WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES THROUGH FRI. A
RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS.
THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT SE TOWARDS BERMUDA FRI AND MOVE WELL E
OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MON...DIMINISHING TRADE WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SW-W FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE
AREA. THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM SOUTH AMERICA AND THE EPAC WATERS ACROSS COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA AND ALSO ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WHERE ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS WITH LIKELY EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS NOTED.

HISPANIOLA...

LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS WILL PROMOTE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLAND.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO THE DAYTIME
HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. THIS MOISTURE AND SW FLOW ALOFT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 36N72W EXTENDS A
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC...W OF 65W...AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA INTO
THE E GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST REGION
NEAR 31N48W THEN CONTINUES SW AND W ALONG 27N55W TO 25N65W TO
27N73W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO BEYOND 31N78W. BASED ON
SCATTEROMETER DATA...STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED W
OF THE FRONT TO ABOUT 60W WHILE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
ARE SEEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 26N TO NEAR 43W. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE W OF 65W BY TONIGHT. THE HIGH
PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS BERMUDA WHILE
SLIGHTLY WEAKENING. A WELL-DEFINED BAND OF CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS IS RELATED TO THE FRONT. IT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVE
SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC TONIGHT AND FRI WHILE WEAKENING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N25W AND
CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 28N30W. FROM THIS POINT...A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES TO NEAR 20N50W. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE
CANARY ISLANDS. ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES
THE FORECAST REGION. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS
EARLY SAT EXTENDING FROM 31N71W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY SUN
MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR
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