[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211137
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU APR 21 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND OVER W AFRICA. THE ITCZ BEGINS
NEAR 7N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N31W 3N44W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N
TO THE ITCZ BETWEEN 24W-29W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
45 NM OF 4N BETWEEN 10W-20W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-9N BETWEEN 46W-58W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES ACROSS
TEXAS TO OVER CENTRAL MEXICO SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
REMAINS INLAND OVER TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SW GULF S OF 24N W OF 94W TO INLAND
OVER MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER E TEXAS/W
LOUISIANA GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 29N BETWEEN VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA TO THE
TEXAS BORDER. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E GULF AND W
ATLC. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY THEN THE HIGH
WILL MOVE E ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE N
GULF FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
N/CENTRAL GULF BEHIND THE FRONT SAT THEN SHIFTING OVER THE NE
GULF SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH AMERICA/W TROPICAL ATLC IS GIVING
THE CARIBBEAN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING. LINGERING
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 13N E
OF 80W TO OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE FRESH
TO STRONG EACH NIGHT S OF HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE THROUGH FRI. W ATLC SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS BERMUDA FRI THEN NE OF THE AREA SAT DIMINISHING TRADE
WINDS.

HISPANIOLA...

LINGERING MOISTURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE N
PORTION OF THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE AND SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT WHEN THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NEAR
ZONAL FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE ISLAND
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 65W AND INTO THE E
GULF OF MEXICO SPLIT BY A FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W
ATLC N OF 29N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH
32N51W ALONG 26N61W TO 26N71W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AND
WEAKENS NW ALONG 29N75W TO BEYOND 32N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 66W. A REMNANT FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE E ATLC AS COLD NEAR 32N22W TO 28N29W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY ALONG 23B41W TO 20N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE 20N50W TO E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N61W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM N OF SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH
NEAR 23N29W. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-BUILD ACROSS THE W ATLC
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THEN WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SE
ACROSS BERMUDA FRI AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SAT. A NEW COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS EARLY SAT AND EXTEND FROM 32N69W
TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SUN MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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