[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210523
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 21 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC TO NEAR 7N13W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 6N15W AND CONTINUES
ALONG 5N31W TO 3N47W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120
NM ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE S OF 7N W OF 9W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 28W-38W AND FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 47W-55W
INCLUDING THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO OVER
TEXAS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY INLAND OVER
TEXAS WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING S OVER MEXICO.
THIS SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 90/120 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO S OF 25N W OF 93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 89W TO OVER FLORIDA. THE DIURNAL
SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE E GULF AND W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH IN THE W
ATLC. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU THEN THE HIGH WILL
MOVE E ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE N GULF
LATE THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
N/CENTRAL GULF BEHIND THE FRONT SAT THEN SHIFTING THE NE GULF
SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH AMERICA/W TROPICAL ATLC IS GIVING
THE CARIBBEAN SW FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE E/CENTRAL ATLC FRONT TO OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W. LINGERING MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 14N E OF 76W TO OVER THE LEEWARD/
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU NIGHT.
NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE FRESH TO STRONG EACH NIGHT S OF
HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH THU NIGHT. W
ATLC SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS BERMUDA FRI THEN NE
OF THE AREA SAT DIMINISHING TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

LINGERING MOISTURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS MOISTURE
AND SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT WHEN THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES NEAR ZONAL FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE
ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO THE DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC SW OF A FRONT W OF 65W TO
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A
1021 MB HIGH OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 30N78W. AN UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 30N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N54W ALONG 28N64W 27N72W THEN NW TO BEYOND
32N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 67W.
A REMNANT COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC NEAR 32N26W ALONG
26N35W TO 21N48W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 20N53W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 20N53W ALONG 19N58W TO THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT/TROUGH W OF 36W. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1021 MB HIGH N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N16W. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RE-BUILD ACROSS THE W ATLC THEN WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SE
ACROSS BERMUDA FRI AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SAT. A NEW COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS EARLY SAT AND EXTEND FROM
32N69W TO 27N77W SUN MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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