[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 20 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN AFRICA TO THE COAST
OF SIERRA LEONE AT 08N13W. THE ITCZ AXIS AS DEFINED IN
SCATTEROMETER DATA...AND ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BEGINS NEAR 07N14W
TO 03N32W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ W OF 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN
ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
30N78W. TO THE SW...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 22N92W TO 19N93W. AT UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NE GULF E OF 90W SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS
AND ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA. SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS A MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE RIDGING TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD
ALLOWING FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN
GULF WATERS WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER S AMERICA AND THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING A SW TO W FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS
THE W ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO ALSO EXTENDS S REACHING THE NW
CARIBBEAN. THE ONLY FEATURE PRESENT OVER THE AREA IS THE TAIL-
END OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS AS A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
LINGERING LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER
JET DYNAMICS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE
CONVECTION MAINLY E OF 70W. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING IS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 12N BETWEEN
64W AND 75W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT FOR A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE
ISLAND AT THIS TIME DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING.
THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REPEAT ITSELF DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLANTIC W OF 66W TO OVER
CUBA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH CENTER
OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 30N78W. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM
ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 33N79W TO 29N72W THEN AS A
COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 32N59W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY FRONT N OF 28N AND W
OF 71W. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N50W TO
31N43W. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE BASIN ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 19N58W TO
23N48W THEN AS A COLD FRONT FROM 23N48W TO A 1007 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 33N31W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE FRONTS AFFECTING THE
ATLANTIC WATERS BETWEEN 26W AND 54W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE FAR E PORTION OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 29N18W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTS AND MOVE E. THE FRONTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E
ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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