[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221731
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 5N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 4N30W TO 2N40W THEN ACROSS THE EQUATOR AND INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
ITCZ AXIS. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS JUST S OF THE THE EQUATOR TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL BETWEEN 35W
AND 41W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC NEAR 31N68W EXTENDS A
RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW GULF AND NOW EXTENDS FROM SW
LOUISIANA TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1014 MB LOW PRES LOCATED ALONG
THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI TO NEAR 26N91W. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE ADJACENT GULF
WATERS MAINLY N OF 28N. N UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS THIS
FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO STRETCH ALONG 27N SAT AND PASS E OF
THE AREA BY SUN. HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF BY SAT NIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE NE GULF ON
SUN. ALOFT...W-NW WINDS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN GULF WHILE
SW-W WINDS DOMINATE THE EASTERN GULF. THESE WINDS ARE
TRANSPORTING MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS FLORIDA WHERE
SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AS NOTED
PER SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS ARE SEEN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THESE
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS SE
TO A POSITION NEAR 28N62W BY SAT MORNING. A DEVELOPING LOW PRES
NE OF THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP
WINDS LIGHTER THAN NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH IS ALONG 80W. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE THIS TROUGH ARE
TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SOUTH
AMERICA ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A CLUSTER
OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH JUST SW OF JAMAICA. SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ALSO
NOTED PER LIGHTING DATA BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA.
DAYTIME HEATING...LOCAL SEA BREEZES AND MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE LIFTING
WILL COMBINE WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES AND THE NE CARIBBEAN DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO HELPING TO
INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

HISPANIOLA...

AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS WILL PROMOTE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLAND.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO THE DAYTIME
HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. THIS MOISTURE AND SW FLOW ALOFT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1024 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 31N68W EXTENDS A RIDGE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE W ATLC AND FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE HIGH PRES WILL MOVE SE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REACHING A POSITION NEAR 28N62W BY SAT MORNING
WHILE SLIGHTLY WEAKENING. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST
REGION NEAR 31N35W THEN CONTINUES SW AND W ALONG 25N45W TO
23N60W WHERE IT BECOMES A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR
24N74W. MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE
BAHAMAS AND THE N COAST OF CUBA BASED ON THE LATEST ASCAT PASS.
THE STATIONARY PART OF THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES SE ACROSS THE ATLC OCEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WIDE BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1021 MB HIGH PRES SITUATED NEAR 26N28W. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CLIPS
THE NE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND CROSSES ABOUT MIDWAY
BETWEEN THE MADEIRA AND THE CANARY ISLANDS. ALOFT...A RIDGE/
TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST REGION. A NEW COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLC EARLY SAT AND EXTEND FROM
31N70W TO PALM BEACH FLORIDA SUN MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR
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