[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED APR 20 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT E OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH
32N41W ALONG 22N47W TO 20N54W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED N
OF 25N WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 20/1800 UTC WHEN THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. PLEASE
SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC TO NEAR 6N12W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
2N26W 1N41W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE TEXAS NEAR GALVESTON ACROSS THE
W GULF TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NW
GULF EXTENDS FROM 29N92W TO 26N92W WITH A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH
IN THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 24N96W TO OFF VERACRUZ MEXICO NEAR
19N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE NW GULF TROUGH AND W OF THE
SW GULF TROUGH TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDS FROM 21N89W TO INLAND OVER
THE YUCATAN TO N GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. A SURFACE
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E GULF AND W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB
HIGH IN THE W ATLC. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU THEN
THE HIGH WILL MOVE E ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE E
THROUGH THE N GULF FRI AND SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH AMERICA/W TROPICAL ATLC IS GIVING
THE CARIBBEAN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC BECOMES STATIONARY AND DISSIPATES TO OVER
GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. LINGERING MOISTURE COUPLED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 14N E OF 70W OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF HISPANIOLA. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE W ATLC DIPS S OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. THIS IS
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN
TONIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
BASIN THROUGH THU NIGHT. NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE FRESH TO
STRONG EACH NIGHT S OF HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
THROUGH THU NIGHT. W ATLC SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT E ACROSS
BERMUDA FRI THEN MOVE NE OF THE AREA SAT DIMINISHING TRADE WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

LINGERING MOISTURE IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ISLAND AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THU BEFORE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NEAR ZONAL
FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT FROM THE S
INCREASING THE SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING
THROUGH SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 65W INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N79W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W AND
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N48W ALONG 27N53W TO 24N69W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A TRIPLE POINT N OF
THE AREA THROUGH 32N41W ALONG 22N47W TO 20N54W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY TO 17N58W THEN DISSIPATES TO OVER GUADELOUPE IN THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. A RE-ENFORCING SURGE IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE
TROUGH TRAILS THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N51W TO 25N58W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN THE FRONT
AND TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 27N50W TO BEYOND 32N46W. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 20N55W
25N46W TO BEYOND 32N39W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N27W. CENTRAL ATLC
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH WED WHILE
TRANSITIONING INTO A SURFACE TROUGH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE NE WATERS ON WED. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
BUILD SE ACROSS THE W ATLC IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTS AND WEAKEN
THROUGH FRI THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SAT. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL THEN MOVE OFF THE SE CONUS SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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