[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201131
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED APR 20 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC N OF 25N WITHIN 180 NM SE OF A FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH
32N36W TO 28N41W AND TO 24N47W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO E
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
20/1800 UTC WHEN THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A SURFACE
TROUGH. PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

A WEAK MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM MAURITANIA W AFRICA INTO THE
E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO NEAR 8N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N25W 3N31W 3N43W THEN INTO S AMERICA NEAR
1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 33W-
36W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 42W-
49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER ACROSS
THE W GULF TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 23N96W TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE TROUGH TO INLAND OVER MEXICO.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN 85W-
92W. THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH THAT WAS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NOW EXTENDS FROM 20N91W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO TO SW
GUATEMALA. A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E GULF AND
W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC. SURFACE RIDGE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU THEN THE HIGH WILL MOVE E ALLOWING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE E THROUGH THE N AND NE GULF FRI AND SAT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT FRI
NIGHT AND SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH AMERICA/W TROPICAL ATLC IS GIVING
THE CARIBBEAN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS NOW
E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. LINGERING MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 13N E OF 73W OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS TO PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL
OF HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE W ATLC DIPS S OVER CUBA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU NIGHT. NE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE FRESH TO STRONG EACH NIGHT S OF
HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH THU NIGHT. W
ATLC SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER BERMUDA FRI...
THEN BECOME CENTERED NE OF THE AREA SAT DIMINISHING TRADE WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

LINGERING MOISTURE COULD GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ISLAND AGAIN THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU BEFORE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NEAR
ZONAL FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THU EVENING FROM THE
S...INCREASING THE SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING THROUGH SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 65W TO OVER
CUBA AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH OFF THE
NE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 30N78W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W
AND CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N42W ALONG 26N51W TO 23N68W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A TRIPLE POINT N OF
THE AREA THROUGH 32N36W ALONG 28N41W TO 24N47W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY TO 20N55W THEN DISSIPATES TO E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
NEAR 17N61W. A RE-ENFORCING SURGE IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE
TROUGH TRAILS THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N46W ALONG 26N49W TO
23N55W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 17N58W 25N44W TO BEYOND
32N37W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 26N24W. A CENTRAL ATLC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH WED WHILE TRANSITIONING
INTO A SURFACE TROUGH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP SE
ACROSS THE NE WATERS ON WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLC IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTS THEN WEAKEN AS IT
SHIFTS E ACROSS BERMUDA FRI THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SAT. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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