[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 192352
TWDAT

AXNT20 KNHC DDHHMM
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY WEDNESDAY IN
THE PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 21N55W TO 26N47W TO 32N42W.
THESE WINDS WILL IMPACT THE AREA N OF 26N AND WITHIN 180 NM SE
OF COLD FRONT WHICH IS PREDICTED TO BE NEAR 31N37W TO 27N45W TO
19N55W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL END WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE FRONT WEAKENS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT...UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

A WEAK TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM WESTERN AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
THE BORDER BETWEEN SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA. FROM THAT
POINT...THE BOUNDARY TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM
06N12W TO 02N30W TO 00N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE ITCZ MAINLY W OF 83W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS E CENTRAL TEXAS
AND EXTENDING S OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. THIS FEATURE
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BETWEEN 88W AND
93W. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
FROM 24N96W TO 18N94W WHILE TO THE N...ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM 30N94W TO 27N97W. THE EASTERN
GULF IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS NEAR 35N91W. SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN.
EXPECT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO
MOVE E ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN WHILE THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ALSO EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. WITH
THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 75W. TO THE
E...THE TIP OF A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N63W. THE
COMBINATION OF SURFACE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY WITH JET DYNAMICS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN IS SETTING OFF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE NE
CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING WATERS MAINLY E OF 70W. TO THE
S...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA
AFFECTING THE AREA S OF 12N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W. SCATTEROMETER
DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT
FOR A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE ISLAND
AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC MAINLY W OF 67W.
TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N63W TO 32N54W. AN
ACTIVE FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 17N63W TO 21N55W THEN AS A
COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 26N47W TO 32N42W. A LARGE BAND OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PREVAILS WITHIN
200 NM S OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 32W AND 56W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COLD FRONT. PLEASE REFER TO THE
SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 29N30W
AND 38N32W. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY E WHILE TRANSITIONING INTO A
SURFACE TROUGH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE
NE WATERS ON WED. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS
THE W ATLANTIC IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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