[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 7N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 3N24W 1N30W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 43W-49W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N TO S OF
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 40W-49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 29W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS TO
24N92W IN THE NW GULF SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM 29N92W THROUGH A NEWLY DEVELOPED 1017 MB LOW NEAR 27N93W TO
24N92W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
N OF 27N BETWEEN 92W-96W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM E
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH S OF THE LOW. A SECOND SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH IS INLAND OVER NE MEXICO GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE MOVING INTO THE W GULF W OF 95W
FROM TUXPAN MEXICO TO JUST N OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE DIURNAL
SURFACE TROUGH INLAND OVER THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 21N FROM THE COAST TO 92W. A
SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE E GULF AND W ATLC ANCHORED
BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER S GEORGIA. THIS IS GIVING THE E GULF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
E GULF THROUGH WED BEFORE WEAKENING WED NIGHT THEN RE-
ESTABLISHING OVER THE FAR N GULF THU. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E OF
THE GULF ON FRI ALLOWING FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NW AND N GULF THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NE GULF FRI AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

NEAR ZONAL W TO W-SW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT.
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC COMBINED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTH AMERICA/W TROPICAL ATLC IS GENERATING A JET
STREAK OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC BEFORE DISSIPATING N OF PUERTO
RICO TO THE E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN COMBINED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
N OF PUERTO RICO ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 14N E OF 70W TO OVER THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN
ISLANDS. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE SE CARIBBEAN BUT RADAR
INDICATES LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC COVERS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. THIS
IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER
TONIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
BASIN THROUGH THU NIGHT. NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE FRESH TO
STRONG EACH NIGHT S OF HISPANIOLA AND ON THE APPROACH TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

A COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC DISSIPATES N OF PUERTO RICO TO
OVER E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
MOST OF THE ISLAND TONIGHT. LINGERING MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK GIVING THE ISLAND
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER S
GEORGIA. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N61W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W AND IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A TRIPLE POINT N OF
THE AREA THROUGH 32N46W ALONG 25N53W TO 19N65W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES TO E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 18.5N69W. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 26N38W THROUGH 32N45W TO THE SAME TRIPLE
POINT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC TO
BEYOND 32N ALONG 39W IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
200/225 NM OF LINE FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W ALONG
22N54W TO 28N42W. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NE ATLC EXTENDS A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ALONG 31N10W OVER THE WESTERN SAHARA TO
20N23W. WEDGED BETWEEN THESE FRONTS IS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NW OF THE AZORES. CENTRAL ATLC COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE THROUGH TUE THEN EXTEND FROM
31N39W TO 25N45W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 20N55W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES TO 18N62W BY WED NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE NE WATERS ON WED. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
BUILD SE ACROSS THE W ATLC IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTS AND WEAKEN
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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