[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182334
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N14W AND THEN CONTINUES TO 04N19W...WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 00N34W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 01S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-04N
BETWEEN 20W-30W AND FROM 00N-02S W OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS TEXAS GENERATING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AFFECTING THE NW GULF.
AS OF 18 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 26N97W TO
30N94W. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION PREVAILS
IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE N OF 24N W OF 91W. TO THE E...A
1026 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER E GEORGIA NORTH NEAR 34N85W
EXTENDS ITS RIDGE S ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN E OF
90W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW GULF AND S TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ALSO REACHES THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 75W. TO THE NE...THE
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA
ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE ISLAND. A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W WHICH COMBINED WITH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO AND THEIR ADJACENT
WATERS. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
ACROSS THE BASIN...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE
W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD
FRONT TO MOVE E TO JUST N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER ISLAND DUE TO THE TAIL END OF A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. EXPECT SIMILAR ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NW
GEORGIA...PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. TO THE E...A
1002 MB SURFACE LOW N OF OUR AREA...EXTENDS ITS COLD FRONT SW
FROM 32N47W TO 22N59W TO 19N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO RELATED
TO THIS LOW EXTENDS FROM 32N47W TO 25N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THESE FRONTS AFFECTING
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS MAINLY N OF 20N BETWEEN 43W-58W.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR E ATLANTIC FROM 19N28W
TO 32N11W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS FEATURE
AT THIS TIME. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION WHILE
THE ONE OVER THE E ATLANTIC WILL MOVE INLAND WHILE WEAKENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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