[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191137
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 9N16W TO 6N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 3N25W 2N35W 2N42W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM THE
ITCZ TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 40W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER
TO 25N88W IN THE NW GULF SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 29N92W THROUGH A WEAK 1017 MB LOW NEAR 27N93W TO
25N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. A SECOND SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS INLAND OVER NE MEXICO
GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W
GULF FROM 19N-27N W OF 93W TO THE COAST OF NE TEXAS AND MEXICO.
THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N92W TO INLAND OVER
THE S MEXICO NEAR 17N94W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 19N BETWEEN 92W-95W. A SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND WESTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1025 MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THIS IS PROVIDING THE
EASTERN GULF CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN IT SLIDES EASTWARD AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC COMBINED WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH AMERICA/W TROPICAL ATLC IS GENERATING A JET
STREAK OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A COLD FRONT
IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TO OVER THE
LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
COMBINED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120
NM OF LINE FROM 15N70W ACROSS THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS
NEAR 17N63W. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN BUT
RADAR INDICATES LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC COVERS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER
THIS MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE BASIN THROUGH THU NIGHT. NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE
FRESH TO STRONG EACH NIGHT S OF HISPANIOLA AND ON THE APPROACH
TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH THU NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

A COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC DISSIPATES TO THE
VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS. LINGERING MOISTURE IS GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. LINGERING
MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK GIVING THE ISLAND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER S
GEORGIA. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N58W TO S FLORIDA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH...
AND IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A TRIPLE POINT
N OF THE AREA THROUGH 32N45W ALONG 24N52W TO 20N61W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W. A RE-ENFORCING
SURGE IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THE FRONT EXTENDING
FROM A 1000 MB LOW NEAR 32N59W ALONG 28N61W TO 26N66W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 75 NM
OF LINE FROM 27N61W TO BEYOND 32N55W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC TO BEYOND 32N ALONG 37W AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150/175 NM OF LINE FROM
THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W ALONG 23N52W TO 32N43W. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY
A 1021 MB HIGH NW OF THE AZORES AND A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 29N30W.
CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH WED
WHILE TRANSITIONING INTO A SURFACE TROUGH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE NE WATERS ON WED. SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BUILD SE ACROSS THE W ATLC IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTS AND
WEAKEN THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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