[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112331
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 07N12W TO 05N13W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N13W TO 01N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 01S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 12W-26W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 00N-05S BETWEEN 33W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1035 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR
41N60W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE TO N FLORIDA NEAR
JACKSONVILLE. 10-15 KT E TO SE RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE GULF IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION.
A COLD FRONT IS WELL INLAND OVER N TEXAS MOVING SE. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
95W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF PRODUCING SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS N OF 25N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE S GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BE
OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES FROM S GEORGIA TO SE LOUISIANA TO E
TEXAS WITH PREFRONTAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TAIL END OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER HISPANIOLA AT
19N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. 20-25 KT WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST
OF N COLOMBIA. 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE ALL OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA DUE TO A SURFACE FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR SHOWERS AND CONVECTION TO BE PREDOMINATELY OVER EASTERN
HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N58W TO
HISPANIOLA AT 19N69W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90NM OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 34N44W. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 25W-55W. OF NOTE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
WITH AXIS ALONG 70W SUPPORTING THE FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 35W. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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