[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120533
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 5N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 2N26W TO 1N35W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF ITCZ BETWEEN 15W-23W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
23W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC
REGION GIVING THE GULF W TO NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER FLOW IS
ADVECTING MOISTURE OVER THE NW GULF WITH REPORTS OF FOG N OF 26N
W OF 90W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS NE
FLORIDA INTO THE GULF TO NE MEXICO. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
RETREAT EASTWARD TUE ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE FAR
NW AND N/CENTRAL GULF BY WED MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WED AND DISSIPATE BY WED NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W.
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS WITHIN 90
NM OF LINE FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W TO JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W TO
15N82W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH TO FRESH BREEZE ON TUE. AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE A FRESH E-SE BREEZE
WILL PULSE WED NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND W OF 70W.
MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH WED NIGHT
CONTINUING TO GIVE THE ISLAND SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
THEN S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN REINFORCING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N55W ALONG 26N65W TO THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 19N69W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 21N BETWEEN 60W-67W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 21N65W TO PUERTO
RICO NEAR 18N67W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF THE
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
SECOND SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE
FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 34N45W. THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE AND RETROGRADE OVERNIGHT SENDING A REMNANT TROUGH N
BETWEEN 65W-70W TUE THROUGH THU. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NW WATERS WED AND EXTEND FROM 32N77W TO COCOA BEACH FLORIDA WED
NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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