[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111724
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE 24-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD
AFTER 12/1200 UTC CONSISTS OF...WESTERLY NEAR GALE OR GALE
EXPECTED IN IRVING AND MADEIRA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA
NEAR 05N9W TO 05N12W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N12W...TO
02N24W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 27W...TO 02S33W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS
FROM 01N TO 05N FROM 36W EASTWARD. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
ARE WARMING UP IN AN AREA OF RECENT WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 49W AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A RIDGE PASSES THROUGH LOUISIANA...PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN
GULF WATERS...AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 86W EASTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N78W...
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...NORTHWESTERN CUBA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

IFR CONDITIONS...KBQX.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KBBF...KXIH...KHHV...KVAF...KGUL...KGRY...
AND KSPR.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR CONDITIONS IN TEXAS FROM PALACIOS-TO-GALVESTON
SOUTHWARD...AND ELSEWHERE IN AND AROUND THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN
AREA AS FAR AWAY AS HUNTSVILLE...AND TO JASPER AND BEAUMONT/
PORT ARTHUR. LOUISIANA...MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. FROM MISSISSIPPI TO FLORIDA...
VFR/NO CEILINGS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA...
REACHING SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA. ANOTHER PART OF THE
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM JAMAICA TO 12N79W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE AREA.

THE SOUTHERN END OF A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 23N68W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 20N72W...BETWEEN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
AND HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FROM 14N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE...FROM 70W EASTWARD...AND FROM 12N
SOUTHWARD FROM 79W WESTWARD.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
11/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.11 IN SAN
JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...0.08 IN CURACAO...AND 0.07 IN GUADELOUPE.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO DOMINGO...
RAINSHOWERS ARE NEARBY. LA ROMANA/PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUERTO
PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE...WITH NORTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF DAY ONE. EXPECT MORE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING
DAY TWO.  THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE...WITH NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF DAY ONE. EXPECT NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH
WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE
FIRST 24 TO 30 HOURS OR SO OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
TIME. EXPECT VARIABLE WINDS RIGHT AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 74W...REACHING THE
AREA OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA/JAMAICA/THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...
APPROACHING HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W 30N64W 24N72W. A STATIONARY FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N57W 29N60W 25N66W 21N72W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT RUNS FROM 30N60W 26N65W 21N71W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N26W TO 18N34W TO 06N40W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N57W 21N72W STATIONARY
FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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