[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...1008 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
COLOMBIA NEAR 08N75W COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NE OF
THE BASIN IS RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN. THIS IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE
NORTHWEST COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE AT SUNRISE. DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS...SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 12 FT. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 07N12W TO 03N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 03N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG
01N24W TO 01S30W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 03S41W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 14W
AND 29W AND FROM 05S TO 02N W OF 27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER NORTH CAROLINA
OFFSHORE WATERS EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE SW-W ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST TO NEAR THE BORDER BETWEEN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SE RETURN FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE
BASIN UNDER THIS PATTERN...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR THE OFFSHORE ZONE OF THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL HAPPEN
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS. A
NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS TUE
MORNING...WEAKENING AS IT ATTEMPTS TO TRANSIT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...FOG IS BEING
REPORTED IN THE FAR NW BASIN N OF 26N W OF 93W. VESSELS
TRANSITING NEAR THIS ZONE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS
VISIBILITY MAY BE LESS THAN 3 MILES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THERE IS A GALE FORCE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER NORTHERN HAITI ADJACENT WATERS. SHALLOW
MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORT
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HAITI AND WESTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TUE...EXCEPT ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE LEE
OF EASTERN CUBA WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

HISPANIOLA...

THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER NORTHERN
HAITI ADJACENT WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
HAITI AND WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE LEE OF EASTERN
CUBA EARLY TODAY. CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH TUE AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT LINGER AND A
SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES THE ISLAND FROM THE EAST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC FROM 30N58W TO
22N68W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS N OF 23N WITHIN 60-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 23N NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY. THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DEGENERATE INTO A SURFACE TROUGH WHILE DRIFTING W-NW THROUGH TUE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRES RIDGING EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER NORTH CAROLINA ADJACENT WATERS TO
THE SW N ATLC WATERS W OF THE FRONT WHILE ANOTHER RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1029 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES ISLANDS COVERS THE REMAINDER
ATLC E OF THE FRONT. THE HIGH PRES CENTER OVER THE W ATLC WILL
DRIFT NE AND MERGE WITH THE HIGH W OF THE AZORES EARLY TUE
MORNING. RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEW CENTER OF HIGH PRES
WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS WHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADES WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WHERE
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS
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