[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...1006 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
COLOMBIA NEAR 09N74W COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NE OF
THE BASIN IS RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF
COLOMBIA THIS MORNING NEAR 0600 UTC. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW
GALE FORCE AT SUNRISE OR AROUND 1200 UTC. SEAS DURING THE PERIOD
OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL BUILD FROM 8 TO 12 FT. PLEASE REFER TO
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 07N12W TO 05N13W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 05N13W AND CONTINUES ALONG
02N23W TO 01S32W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 02S40W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06S TO 01N W OF 26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER NORTH CAROLINA
OFFSHORE WATERS EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE SW-W ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST TO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG SE RETURN FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN UNDER THIS
PATTERN...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MON NIGHT. FOR
THE OFFSHORE ZONE OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL HAPPEN DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE NW WATERS TUE MORNING...WEAKENING AS IT ATTEMPTS TO
TRANSIT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...FOG IS BEING REPORTED IN THE FAR NW BASIN N OF 26N W
OF 93W. VESSELS TRANSITING NEAR THIS ZONE SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION AS VISIBILITIES MAY BE LESS THAN 3 MILES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THERE IS A GALE FORCE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER OFFSHORE WATERS OF NW HAITI. SHALLOW
MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORT
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HAITI AND WESTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...EXCEPT PULSING TO FRESH TO STRONG
NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE LEE OF EASTERN CUBA EARLY
THIS MORNING.

HISPANIOLA...

THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER OFFSHORE
WATERS OF NW HAITI. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER HAITI AND WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
ARE PULSING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE LEE OF EASTERN CUBA
EARLY THIS MORNING. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH TUE AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT LINGER AND A SURFACE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE ISLAND FROM THE EAST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC FROM 31N58W TO
22N69W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS N OF 24N WITHIN 60-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 24N NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY MON. THE
FRONT REMNANTS WILL GRADUALLY DEGENERATE INTO A SURFACE TROUGH
WHILE DRIFTING W-NW THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRES
RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED
OVER NORTH CAROLINA ADJACENT WATERS WILL PERSIST W OF THE FRONT
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...A 1031 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER N OF THE AREA NEAR 39N39W WILL DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF THE FRONT WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES WILL PREVAIL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS
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