[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102230
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...1006 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
COLOMBIA NEAR 08N75W COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NE OF
THE BASIN IS RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF
COLOMBIA LATE TONIGHT...DIMINISHING MON MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 8-12 FT DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 08N12W TO 05N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N15W TO 01N30W TO THE EQUATOR AT 40W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 01S45W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR LUMBERTON NORTH
CAROLINA EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE SW-W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST TO NEAR GALVESTON TEXAS. MODERATE TO FRESH SE RETURN FLOW
PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN UNDER THIS PATTERN...WITH LITTLE
CHANGE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MON NIGHT. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE
OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NW WATERS TUE MORNING...WEAKENING AS IT ATTEMPTS TO TRANSIT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER NW HAITI NEAR 20N73W. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH IS JUST TO THE E OVER THE WESTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC ALONG 71W. OTHERWISE...NO SURFACE FEATURES ARE
CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE BASIN. OUTSIDE OF THE PULSING
WINDS TO GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DISCUSSED IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...EXCEPT PULSING TO FRESH TO
STRONG NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE LEE OF EASTERN CUBA
TONIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER NW HAITI NEAR 20N73W. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH IS JUST TO THE E OVER THE WESTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THE PRESENCE OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES ALONG WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS THE
SURFACE FEATURES LINGER WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N59W TO THE NW COAST
OF HAITI NEAR 20N73W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS JUST TO THE E OVER
THE WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
N OF 23N WITHIN 60-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 23N NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL
STALL TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON...THEN WILL GRADUALLY DEGENERATE
INTO A SURFACE TROUGH WHILE DRIFTING W-NW THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.
WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER LOCATED NEAR LUMBERTON NORTH CAROLINA WILL PERSIST W OF
THE FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...A 1032
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER N OF THE AREA NEAR 40N40W WILL DOMINATE
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LEWITSKY
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