[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101737
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING... ON 11/0600 UTC A GALE IS AGAIN
FORECAST FOR AN AREA N OF N COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W
AND 76W WITH NE TO E WINDS 30 TO 35 KT AND SEAS 10 TO 12 FT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE AFTER SIX HOURS ON 11/1200
UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 08N13W TO 05N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N16W TO 01N30W TO 00N40W TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 01S45W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N79W. 10-
20 KT E TO SE RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NE GULF. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS OFF THE COAST OF S TEXAS NEAR BROWNSVILLE FROM 25N-27N
BETWEEN 95W-97W. FURTHER S...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 21N92W TO 17N93W VOID OF PRECIPITATION. FAIR
WEATHER COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 94W. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW GULF...AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER E CUBA AT 21N75W. A
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE S BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA
FROM 23N70W TO 18N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE S BAHAMAS
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND E CUBA. ELSEWHERE...A 1008 MB LOW IS
CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 08N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA. 15-30 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. NEAR GALE WINDS ARE NOTED
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 60W-67W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E ALONG 20N WITH SHOWERS.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE
ISLAND DUE TO THE COLD FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N62W TO E CUBA AT
21N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN
62W-64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC
FROM 15N-30N BETWEEN 15W-60W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 60W
SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 35W SUPPORTING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO REACH 31N57W WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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