[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061716
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED APR 06 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 2N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S
OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 19W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N E OF 13W TO ACROSS THE
PRIME MERIDIAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N
BETWEEN 35W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC IS TRAILING A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT ACROSS S FLORIDA BETWEEN MIAMI AND NAPLES THEN INTO THE NE
GULF TO 29N86W WHERE IT PULLS UP STATIONARY BEFORE CONTINUING
INLAND NEAR BILOXI MISSISSIPPI. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TOWARD THE UPPER/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY IS
INLAND OVER TEXAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERING THE GULF
AND ALL OF MEXICO. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW COMBINED WITH WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN
93W-96W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE E GULF FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT OVER TEXAS WILL ENTER THE NW GULF THIS
EVENING AND SHIFT SE REACHING FROM FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION TO NE
MEXICO THU MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATE FROM S FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO
BY FRI MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE N
GULF THU AND FRI IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS N
HAITI FROM 20N72W TO 19N75W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN
60 NM OF THE FRONT. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS N OF 15N TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND THE GREATER ANTILLES E OF 83W AND FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 83W-
88W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT OVER HAITI WILL STALL
TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THU. MODERATE NE TO E TRADE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT AS SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES NE OFF THE US MID ATLC COAST. FRESH TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE TO STRONG ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC OVER N HAITI
INTO THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER MOST OF HAITI WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND DUE TO THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL STALL TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THU
CONTINUING TO GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A
LEADING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N57W ALONG 24N65W TO
20N72W THEN OVER N HAITI INTO THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
TRAILS THE LEADING FRONT AND ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N60W ALONG
27N65W 25N75W THEN ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
MIAMI. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N AND W OF THE
REINFORCING COLD FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED
BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES.
METEO FRANCE HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THE AREA E OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS TO ALONG THE COAST OF AGADIR AND TARFAYA FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE METAREA2 HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM. THE LEADING COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM
32N50W TO N HISPANIOLA THU MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND THEN
BEGIN TO DRIFT N AND DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI. THE REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS WHILE
REMAINDER OF FRONT SINKS S AND MERGES WITH LEADING FRONT
TONIGHT. A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST
ON THU REACHING FROM 32N70W TO THE CENTRAL CUBA ON FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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