[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061104
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED APR 06 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN AGADIR...
TARFAYA...AND CANARIAS UNTIL 07/1200 UTC. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THAT FOLLOW 07/1200 UTC CONSISTS OF...THE
PERSISTENCE OF NORTH OR NORTHEAST NEAR GALE OR GALE IN AGADIR
AND CANARIAS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 07N12W TO 02N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 02N15W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 18W...TO 01S20W 01S30W...TO THE
EQUATOR ALONG 39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG IN CLUSTERS FROM 06N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE ALSO IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 29N87W...SOUTHWARD...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

IFR CONDITIONS...KEMK AND KBVE.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBQX...KXIH...LIGHT RAIN ALSO AT
KGLS...KVAF...KEHC...AND KGHB.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR IN FALFURRIAS...AND IN PARTS OF THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA FROM CONROE TO HOUSTON TO ANGLETON/LAKE
JACKSON. RAIN AND MVFR IN GALVESTON. LOUISIANA...IFR IN GALLIANO
AND BOOTHVILLE. LIFR IN SLIDELL. MVFR IN SOME AREAS ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI...PASCAGOULA IS
FLUCTUATING BETWEEN VFR/NO CEILING AND IFR WITH EVERY OTHER
OBSERVATION. ALABAMA...IFR IN GULF SHORES. FLORIDA...VFR/NO
CEILINGS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACCOMPANIES A TROUGH THAT IS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO
THE EAST OF THE LINE FROM 10N83W AT THE COAST OF COSTA RICA...
BEYOND THE MONA PASSAGE.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO
DOMINGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...IFR CLOUD HEIGHTS WITH FOG. PUERTO PLATA...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND CUBA INCLUDING
JAMAICA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING
DAY ONE. A RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OF HISPANIOLA DURING
DAY TWO...EXTENDING FROM EL SALVADOR TO NORTHWESTERN CUBA. THE
RIDGE EVENTUALLY WILL BE LOCATED FROM THE GULF OF URABA OF
COLOMBIA BEYOND JAMAICA AND SOUTHEASTERN JAMAICA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND CUBA
DURING DAY ONE. DAY TWO WILL CONSIST OF NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND
FLOW...WITH HISPANIOLA BEING TO THE NORTH OF AN EAST-TO-WEST
ORIENTED RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT AN
EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND BELIZE TO HISPANIOLA. EXPECT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...MOSTLY FROM 15N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 60W AND 80W...AND FROM 80W WESTWARD. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 06/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.17 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SPREADING
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 59W AND 80W. THE FIRST COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 25N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM TO 240 NM TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W 26N58W
23N65W 20N60W...TO 17N75W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SECOND COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO 28N70W...TO 26N78W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE FRONT
BECOMES STATIONARY IN MISSISSIPPI. A CLEAR CLOUD PATTERN IS
EVIDENT WITH THE SECOND COLD FRONT. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 06/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO
THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.02 IN BERMUDA.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO 26N35W...TO AN
18N39W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 10N49W AND 07N55W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 50W.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM 17N TO 30N BETWEEN 20W AND
40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 28N46W 23N49W 18N56W...
TOWARD THE CENTRAL PART OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM
06N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N60W-TO-WINDWARD PASSAGE
COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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