[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Wed Apr 6 01:05:01 CDT 2016


AXNT20 KNHC 060604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED APR 06 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN AGADIR...
TARFAYA...AND CANARIAS UNTIL 07/0000 UTC. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THAT FOLLOW 07/0000 UTC CONSISTS OF...THE
PERSISTENCE OF NORTH OR NORTHEAST GALE OR NEAR GALE IN
AGADIR AND CANARIAS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 07N12W TO 04N13W AND 01N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
01N15W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 16W...TO 02S20W 03S30W AND
04S29W AT THE COAST OF BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE ALSO IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 28N91W...SOUTHWARD...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR CONDITIONS...KEMK...

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG AND KGHB.

KHHV AND KGHB. VFR/NO CEILINGS...ELSEWHERE.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MISSISSIPPI...IFR IN PASCAGOULA. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE
FROM TEXAS TO ALABAMA...AND IN FLORIDA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM15NNORTHWARD BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACCOMPANIES A TROUGH THAT IS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
TO THE EAST OF THE LINE FROM 11N81W...THROUGH AND BEYOND THE
MONA PASSAGE.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW CLOUDS
AT 2000 FEET AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 5000 FEET...BASED ON THE
06/0200 UTC OBSERVATION. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
BARAHONA...FEW CLOUDS AT 1800 FEET AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8000
FEET...BASED ON THE 06/0000 UTC OBSERVATION. SANTO DOMINGO...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. LA ROMANA/PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...IFR CLOUD HEIGHTS WITH FOG. PUERTO PLATA...
A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...1800 FEET...MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND CUBA INCLUDING
JAMAICA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING
DAY ONE. A RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OF HISPANIOLA DURING
DAY TWO...EXTENDING FROM EL SALVADOR TO NORTHWESTERN CUBA. THE
RIDGE EVENTUALLY WILL BE LOCATED FROM THE GULF OF URABA OF
COLOMBIA BEYOND JAMAICA AND SOUTHEASTERN JAMAICA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND CUBA
DURING DAY ONE. DAY TWO WILL CONSIST OF NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND
FLOW...WITH HISPANIOLA BEING TO THE NORTH OF AN EAST-TO-WEST
ORIENTED RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT AN
EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND BELIZE TO HISPANIOLA. EXPECT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...MOSTLY FROM 15N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 60W AND 80W...AND FROM 80W WESTWARD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SPREADING
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 80W.
THE FIRST COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 24N70W...ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N60W TO 24N68W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 280 NM TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W 26N58W...AND
WITHIN 180 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 26N58W 23N67W 18N76W.
THE SECOND COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO 30N70W 28N76W...
ACROSS FLORIDA TO 30N85W IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 30N85W...BEYOND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A CLEAR CLOUD PATTERN IS
EVIDENT WITH THE SECOND COLD FRONT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO 26N35W...TO AN
18N39W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 10N49W AND 07N55W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 50W.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM 17N TO 30N BETWEEN 20W AND
40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N41W TO 27N48W 23N54W 22N64W...
TO HISPANIOLA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT RUN FROM 30N60W TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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