[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052327
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE APR 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN AGADIR...
TARFAYA...AND CANARIAS UNTIL 06/1200 UTC. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THAT FOLLOW 06/1200 UTC CONSISTS OF...THE
PERSISTENCE OF NORTH OR NORTHEAST NEAR GALE OR GALE IN
AGADIR...TARFAYA...AND CANARIAS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEON NEAR 07N12W TO 02N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 02N15W TO
02S20W TO 03S30W TO BRAZIL NEAR 03S39W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-05S BETWEEN 18W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ST AUGUSTINE FLORIDA
AT 29N81W TO MOBILE ALABAMA AT 30N88W. THE FRONT IS VOID OF
PRECIPITATION. FURTHER W...A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N92W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE
OVER THE W GULF. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS PRODUCING NW UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER
THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD
FRONT TO REACH S FLORIDA AND REMAIN VOID OF PRECIPITATION. ALSO
EXPECT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A NEW COLD FRONT TO BE JUST INLAND
OVER SE TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER E CUBA FROM 21N76W TO
20N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A
SURFACE TROUGH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS E OF 78W. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...COSTA RICA...INLAND OVER
N COLOMBIA...AND INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A
RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N62W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE OVER PUERTO RICO WITH SHOWERS.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE ISLAND
DUE TO THE COLD FRONT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N73W
TO ST AUGUSTINE FLORIDA AT 29N81W. THE FRONT IS VOID OF
PRECIPITATION. 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF FRONT. FURTHER
E... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO 25N70W TO E CUBA NEAR
21N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT. A VERY
LARGE 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 36N34W.
SURFACE RIDGING IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 15W-55W. OF NOTE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF
60W SUPPORTING BOTH FRONTS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20N40W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF
THIS CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN
25W-40W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTS TO MERGE AND EXTEND
FROM 30N55W TO PUERTO RICO WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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