[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 06 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN SENEGAL AFRICA INTO
THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 04N16W TO 01N20W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02S26W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 34W
TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 05S TO 02N BETWEEN 20W AND 28W AND N OF
THE ITCZ FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 28W AND 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND PROVIDES THE GULF WITH LIGHT S-SE
FLOW...EXCEPT N OF 26N W OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHERN ALABAMA NEAR 30N88W TO 27N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WEST AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH N OF 28N FROM 90W TO 85W AS SHOWN
BY SATELLITE DERIVED AND RADAR IMAGERY. THIS CONVECTION EXTENDS
INLAND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MAINLY MIDDLE LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTS FROM THE EPAC WATERS TO THE NORTHERN GULF AND
SUPPORTS CLOUDINESS ELSEWHERE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TOWARD THE UPPER/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS
THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER NW GULF WATERS LATER TONIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT SE AND BY THU AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO REACH
FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N90W TO
TAMPICO MEXICO. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND FROM ANDROS ISLAND...ACROSS THE STRAIT OF FLORIDA TO
THE FAR SE GULF WHERE IT WILL BECOME DISSIPATING STATIONARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS EXTENDS S ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF THE E CARIBBEAN WITH BASE REACHING
COASTAL VENEZUELA. THE TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD
FRONT N OF THE AREA WITH TAIL REACHING FROM NORTHERN HISPANIOLA
NEAR 20N70W SW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 19N74W. SHALLOW
MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH LIFTING
PROVIDED BY THE TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PUERTO RICO AND
JAMAICA. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND RIDGING
OVER THE W ATLC IS FUNNELING N-NW FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO WITHIN 90
NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ENHANCED BY LOCAL TERRAIN. LIGHT TO
MODERATE TRADES ARE ELSEWHERE...BEING SUPPORTED BY A RELAXED
PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM
ALOFT CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER TO THE REMAINDER BASIN.
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS HISPANIOLA WILL STALL LATER TONIGHT AND
DISSIPATE THROUGH THU.

HISPANIOLA...

A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS EXTENDS S ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF THE E CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT N OF THE AREA WITH TAIL REACHING FROM NORTHERN HISPANIOLA
NEAR 20N70W SW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 19N74W. SHALLOW
MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH LIFTING
PROVIDED BY THE TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND RIDGING
OVER THE W ATLC IS FUNNELING N-NW FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS HISPANIOLA WILL
STALL LATER TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THU...SHOWERS
CONTINUING THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS EXTENDS S ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF THE E CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT FROM 30N56W TO 23N63W TO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W
SW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 19N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 245 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER BOUNDARY N
OF HISPANIOLA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT TRAILS THE LEADING
FRONT...EXTENDING FROM 30N57W TO 24N67W...EXPECTED TO MERGE THE
LEADING FRONT LATER TONIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC W AND E
OF THE FRONT IS BEING DOMINATED BY RIDGING. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. PLEASE SEE ATLC HIGH
SEAS FORECAST FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...METEO FRANCE HAS A GALE
WARNING FOR THE AREA E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO ALONG THE COAST
OF AGADIR AND TARFAYA FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE
METAREA2 HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM. A THIRD
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST ON THU REACHING
FROM 32N70W TO THE CENTRAL CUBA ON FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS
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