[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE APR 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN AGADIR AND
TARFAYA UNTIL 06/0000 UTC. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
THAT FOLLOW 06/0000 UTC CONSISTS OF...THE PERSISTENCE OF NORTH
OR NORTHEAST NEAR OR GALE AGADIR...TARFAYA...AND CANARIAS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA
NEAR 07N11W...TO 04N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N15W...TO THE
EQUATOR ALONG 30W...ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 40W...TO 01S47W AT THE
COAST OF BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 13W
AND 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS ACROSS FLORIDA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS NEAR 28N96W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KVAF...KEMK...
KEHC...AND KMIS.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KHHV AND KGHB. VFR/NO CEILINGS...ELSEWHERE.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
70W WESTWARD.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW
CLOUDS AT 2000 FEET...AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 5000 FEET... AT
05/0200 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA AT 05/0000
UTC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTO DOMINGO/LA ROMANA...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO/PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE CROSS HISPANIOLA
FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS OF DAY TWO AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR
FORECAST. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE
APPROACHES HISPANIOLA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. AN INVERTED
TROUGH TOUCHES SOUTHEASTERN HISPANIOLA. A TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
CUBA AND JAMAICA BY THE END OF DAY ONE. THAT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE STARTS WITH A RIDGE IN
THE WESTERN PART OF HISPANIOLA AND AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE
EASTERN PART OF HISPANIOLA. THE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA
ENTIRELY FOR DAY ONE...AND THEN TOTALLY ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR
DAY TWO.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...FROM 14N NORTHWARD FROM 80W
WESTARD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N76W TO
THE SOUTHERN PART OF COASTAL FLORIDA. A STATIONARY PASSES
THROUGH 32N57W TO 27N70W...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N81W...TO THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEAR 20N87W...TO 16N87W AT THE COAST OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
STATE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 58W AND 75W. ISOLATED
MODERATE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...BETWEEN 74W AND 80W...
AND FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 86W AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
INLAND IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N SOUTHWARD.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 28N47W...TO A
21N43W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 15N46W 08N50W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 13N TO 26N BETWEEN 26W AND 44W.

A 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N36W. ONE SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH CENTER TOWARD THE CANARY ISLANDS. A SECOND
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 08N28W. A THIRD
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 23N60W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 07N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
AFRICA AND THE 32N58W-TO-BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W STATIONARY FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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