[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051106
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE APR 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN AGADIR...
TARFAYA...AND CANARIAS UNTIL 06/1200 UTC. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THAT FOLLOW 06/1200 UTC CONSISTS OF...THE
PERSISTENCE OF NORTH OR NORTHEAST NEAR GALE OR GALE IN
AGADIR...TARFAYA...AND CANARIAS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA
NEAR 06N10W...TO 03N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N14W...TO THE
EQUATOR ALONG 19W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 01S BETWEEN 19W AND 39W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 07N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 07W AND 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...IN THE
AREAS OF FLORIDA...THE BAHAMAS..AND CUBA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 100W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE ALSO IS APPARENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 28N91W...TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG
THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 22N97W...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

MVFR CONDITIONS...KHHV AND KGHB. VFR/NO CEILINGS...ELSEWHERE.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...LIFR IN HARLINGEN AND EDINBURG...FALFURRIAS...ALICE...
BAY CITY...AND IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR. IFR IN VICTORIA. MVFR IN
ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON AND JASPER. LOUISIANA...LIFR IN THE LAKE
CHARLES METROPOLITAN AREA...IN NEW IBERIA. MVFR IN BATON ROUGE.
MISSISSIPPI...IFR IN PASCAGOULA. ALABAMA... FLORIDA...MVFR AT
THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE
IN FLORIDA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
70W WESTWARD.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO
DOMINGO...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 7000
FEET. PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE CROSS HISPANIOLA
FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS OF DAY TWO AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR
FORECAST. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE
APPROACHES HISPANIOLA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. AN INVERTED
TROUGH TOUCHES SOUTHEASTERN HISPANIOLA. A TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
CUBA AND JAMAICA BY THE END OF DAY ONE. THAT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE STARTS WITH A RIDGE IN
THE WESTERN PART OF HISPANIOLA AND AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE
EASTERN PART OF HISPANIOLA. THE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA
ENTIRELY FOR DAY ONE...AND THEN TOTALLY ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR
DAY TWO.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...FROM 14N NORTHWARD FROM 80W
WESTARD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THAT IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF GEORGIA. THE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE AREA OF 32N78W...SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS BEYOND
CUBA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST AND WEST WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF
THE TROUGH...BETWEEN 60W AND THE TROUGH. A STATIONARY FRONT
PASSES TROUGH 32N58W TO 27N70W...TO A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N75W. THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
29N75W TO THE BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF ANDROS ISLAND...
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CUBA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 56W AND 68W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N50W 24N60W 21N76W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 25N46W...TO A
22N42W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 13N46W 08N50W 05N51W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 08N TO 27N BETWEEN 24W AND 42W.

A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N36W. ONE SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 32N.
A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 04N38W. A
THIRD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 20N60W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 07N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N58W-TO-BAHAMAS STATIONARY
FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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