[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042332
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON APR 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LIBERIA NEAR 06N10W TO THE
EASTERN ATLC WATERS NEAR 04N13W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR
04N13W...THEN CONTINUES TO 02N27W TO 00N40W TO THE NORTHERN
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 05N-02S BETWEEN 14W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA
NEAR 23N80W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
20N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO S OF A LINE FROM 25N81W TO
21N90W. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF
19N. ELSEWHERE...A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
TEXAS NEAR 27N96W. FAIR WEATHER WITH 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS
ARE OVER THE GULF NORTHERN GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE BASE
OF A BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE
SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND PRODUCE FAIR
WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES
S FROM 20N87W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER W CUBA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BELIZE...THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND N HONDURAS.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND COSTA RICA.
A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 10-20 KT
TRADEWINDS E OF 80W. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF
N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONT TO DRIFT TO E CUBA WITH SHOWERS...AND DISSIPATE OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR
MORE SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DUE TO THE FRONT.
ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
OVER HISPANIOLA WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
31N59W TO 29N63W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 27N70W
TO W CUBA NEAR 23N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A VERY
LARGE 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N37W.
SURFACE RIDGING IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 15W-55W. OF NOTE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 20N44W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 20W-40W. EXPECT
IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 31N63W TO E CUBA NEAR
21N75W WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO EXPECT IN
24 HOURS FOR A NEW COLD FRONT TO DIP S TO THE NORTH FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST WITH 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS BUT VOID OF
PRECIPITATION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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