[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN APR 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST IN LIBERIA
NEAR 06N11W TO 04N13W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 04N13W AND CROSSES
THE EQUATOR ALONG 25W THEN CONTINUES TO 05S37W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE FROM THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 23W-37W WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS BETWEEN 10W-
20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE GULF WATERS FROM 22N88W TO
27N82W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA AND SE GULF FROM 24N84W TO 25N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AFFECTING THE  SE
GULF WATERS S OF 25N AND E OF 88W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED
NEAR 22N98W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN MAINLY NW OF THE FRONT
WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE
MOVING SE REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WHOLE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC
EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS
OVER W CARIBBEAN ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS W
OF 82W. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES IS ENHANCING ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN AFFECTING THE GREATER ANTILLES.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTED AT UPPER LEVELS BY A TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 17N63W TO 10N78W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE
CONVECTION AND WINDS/SEAS.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ISLAND AS A LARGE
PATCH OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT FOR DRIER WEATHER TO
PREVAIL IN 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES E.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 28N80W TO
32N73W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 25N80W TO 27N77W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG AND IN THE
VICINITY OF THESE BOUNDARIES MAINLY W OF 72W. TO THE E...A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
CENTERED NEAR 34N41W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHILE A MODERATE TO
FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT E.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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