[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN APR 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST IN LIBERIA
NEAR 07N13W TO 03N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 03N16W AND CROSSES
THE EQUATOR ALONG 23W THEN CONTINUES TO 04S38W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE FROM THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 22W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE GULF WATERS FROM 21N89W TO
27N82W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE FAR E GULF WATERS S OF 24N AND E OF 87W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1023 MB HIGHS LOCATED NEAR 27N97W AND
22N98W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN MAINLY NW OF THE FRONT WHILE
LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE
MOVING SE REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WHOLE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC
EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ENHANCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 85W.
SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES IS
ENHANCING ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN AFFECTING THE GREATER ANTILLES.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTED AT UPPER LEVELS BY A TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 17N63W TO 10N78W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE
CONVECTION AND WINDS/SEAS.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE
ISLAND AS A LARGE PATCH OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN PREVAILS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT
FOR DRIER WEATHER TO PREVAIL IN 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES E.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 29N81W TO
32N77W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 28N80W TO 30N78W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG AND IN THE
VICINITY OF THESE BOUNDARIES MAINLY W OF 76W. TO THE E...A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
CENTERED NEAR 34N42W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHILE A MODERATE TO
FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT E.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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