[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT APR 02 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE AREA...

A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
29N83W TO 22N91W TO 18N93W AND HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER MEXICO
SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS S OF 20N AND W OF 95W...WITH SEAS
RANGING FROM 10 TO 14 FT. GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
UNTIL THIS EVENING. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADER
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST IN LIBERIA
NEAR 07N11W TO 04N17W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 04N17W AND CROSSES
THE EQUATOR ALONG 26W THEN CONTINUES ALONG 01S30W TO 03S40W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE FROM
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES SW
AND BECOMES SHEARED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
29N83W TO 22N91W TO 18N93W. SOME MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS
SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITHIN 45-60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25.5N85.5W TO THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR FORT MYERS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND
EMBEDDED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE FRONT AND
BANKING UP ALONG THE LEE OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. THE
GOES-R FOG/LOW STRATUS PROXY PRODUCT SUGGESTS A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IN
THE LEE OF THE SIERRA MADRE S OF 21N. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER MEXICO
SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS IN AN AREA S OF 20N AND W OF 95W.
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WERE NOTED ELSEWHERE N
OF THE FRONT AND E OF 95W. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WERE
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 25N84W TO THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS TROUGH OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO BELIZE. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR
THE GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE SUN WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE NW GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW THE NORTHERLY WINDS TO VEER TO
THE NE AND SUBSIDE OVER MOST OF THE GULF W OF 88W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
NEAR 12N93W DOMINATED THE FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 78W.
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED OVER THE CARIBBEAN NW OF AN UPPER
TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS WHICH EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS SW TO NEAR 12N74W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILED OVER
THE ENTIRE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDED INTO THE CARIBBEAN. AN
EARLIER 1352 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY
TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN. WINDS WERE STRONGER IN THE VICINITY OF
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. GENERALLY FAIR SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MID
CLOUDS OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA WITH THE SAN JUAN WSR-
88D INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME NW PORTION OF
THE ISLAND AND OVER THE MONA PASSAGE.  A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER NW CARIBBEAN WATERS
BY EARLY MON MORNING BRINGING SHOWERS TO THIS REGION.

HISPANIOLA...

STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF HISPANIOLA AS A LARGE PATCH OF MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PREVAILS. THE 12 UTC SANTO DOMINGO RAWINDSONDE STILL INDICATED A
VERY WEAK TRADE WIND INVERSION AT 775 MB WITH ELEVATED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.56 INCHES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC REMAINED AMPLIFIED WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDING
NE ACROSS CUBA TO 30N66W. A DOWNSTREAM SHARP MID-TO UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDED SW FROM 32N50W THROUGH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR
21N55W THEN CONTINUES SW TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE
SW N ATLC WATERS N OF 26N W OF 73W ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING OFF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE
REMNANTS OF A FORMER DISSIPATING FRONT CONTINUE TO BE ANALYZED
AS A SHEARLINE THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N25W TO 24N40W TO 25N48W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION NEAR 34N41W. FRESH
WINDS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHEARLINE...N OF 13N BETWEEN
25W AND 55W. FRESH TO STRONG S WINDS ARE IN THE SW BASIN N OF
28N W OF 70W AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE PRESSING SE OVER THE SW ATLC WATERS THROUGH SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB
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