[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN APR 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LIBERIA AFRICA NEAR 06N11W TO E
ATLC WATERS ALONG 03N15W TO 02N19W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR
02N19W...CROSSES THE EQUATOR ALONG 28W THEN CONTINUES TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S42W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 01N TO
06N E OF 17W AND FROM 08S TO 01N W OF 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE
EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD OVER THE GULF WATERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE NE TIP
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE IT STALLS. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THE GRADIENT OF PRES
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE FRONT SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG N-NE
WINDS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
STALL LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHEN IT WILL START TO
DISSIPATE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE SE GULF
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE REMAINDER BASIN WILL BE DOMINATED BY
HIGH PRES AND VARIABLE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC WATERS...ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE NE TIP OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE IT STALLS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNDER A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE FRONT AND A BROAD RIDGE THAT
COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. THESE SHOWERS EXTEND INLAND
WESTERN CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 20N W OF 80W. THE
PORTION OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE STRAITS AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
IS FORECAST TO STALL LATER TODAY...THUS PROLONGING THE SHOWERS
IN THE FAR NW BASIN. A LARGE PATCH OF SHALLOW MOISTURE IS MOVING
S OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA LIKELY ENHANCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS EXTENDING INLAND. STABLE AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE BEING INFLUENCED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AND
DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE. A RELAXED PRES GRADIENT BASIN-WIDE SUPPORT
MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND
LIGHT TRADES ELSEWHERE.

HISPANIOLA...

A LARGE PATCH OF SHALLOW MOISTURE IS MOVING S OF HISPANIOLA
LIKELY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDING TO THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH A STABLE
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...THE EXCEPTION BEING DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS WHEN SHOWERS MAY BE ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC WATERS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N69W TO THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS NEAR 26N76W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 220 NM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS ARE WITHIN 390 NM E OF
FRONT N OF 29.5N WITH SEAS REACHING 9 FT. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED N OF THE AREA BY A 1032 MB HIGH PRES CENTER. A LOCALLY
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FROM 18N TO
27N BETWEEN 29W AND 52W. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E ACROSS
SW N ATLC WATERS THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING WHEN THE FRONT STARTS
TO STALL. THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION BACK TO A COLD FRONT EARLY
WED MORNING WHEN A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MERGES WITH THE
FORMER BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS
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