[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 02 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE AREA...

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 30N88W TO 22N96W TO
22N98W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE NW GULF BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BY EARLY SATURDAY...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP S OF 24N W OF FRONT AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
MEXICAN COAST ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS GALE IS FORECAST
TO PERSIST UNTIL EARLY SUN. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADER
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WEST AFRICA NEAR 06N11W TO
04N13W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N13W TO 03S30W TO 04S38W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN
13W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NE GULF SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM 30N88W TO 22N96W TO 22N98W. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE NW GULF BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 27N AND
E OF 89W. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
WINDS. EXPECT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO CONTINUE
MOVING E ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR E GULF AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW
GULF. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
EXTENDING SW REACHING THE CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE BASIN
AFFECTING HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND
ADJACENT WATERS N OF 16N. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WHILE GENTLE TO
MODERATE SE WINDS PREVAIL W OF 70W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND
AT THIS TIME. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS APPROACHING THE EASTERN US COAST ENHANCING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC MAINLY W OF 74W. TO THE E...A
1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
CENTERED NEAR 34N46W. S OF THIS FEATURE...A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS
FROM 26N50W TO 27N32W THEN TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD FRONT FROM
THAT POINT TO 32N22W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AT THIS TIME. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS
A MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO WEAKEN AND
TRANSITION INTO A SHEAR LINE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT E.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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