[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI APR 01 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST FROM METEO-FRANCE ON THE
WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2 IS NOW INDICATING AND FORECASTING WINDS TO
REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO IN AGADIR.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE AREA...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 30N89W TO 25N98W IS
PRESSING SOUTHWARD. WINDS N OF THE FRONT ARE INCREASING ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT
PER THE MOST RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS IN THE NW GULF. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE S AND EXTEND FROM 30N86W TO 25.5N93W TO 18.5N95.5W
BY 0900 UTC SAT WINDS ARE FORECAST TOM INCREASE TO 30 TO 35 KT
WITH SEAS TO 12 FT S OF 24N AND W OF THE FRONT. THIS GALE IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL 0000 UTC SUN.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WEST AFRICA NEAR 06N11W TO
03N15W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N15W...CROSSES THE EQUATOR ALONG
25W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 04S39W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 14W-31W AND S OF THE EQUATOR TO 04Z BETWEEN 37W-
45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
NEAR 09N96W DOMINATED THE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...SW N
ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED NE ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH CUBA TO NEAR 30N70W.  BROAD WSW FLOW WAS
NOTED OVER THE ENTIRE GULF WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTING NE AND FUELING SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW
OF THEM SEVERE ALONG THE GULF COAST BETWEEN THE CHANDELEUR
ISLANDS OF LOUISIANA TO APPALACHICOLA FLORIDA. A FAIRLY SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LOUISIANA TO THE SE TEXAS WAS
PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N89W TO
25N98W MOVING SOUTHWARD. WINDS N OF THE FRONT ARE INCREASING ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT
PER THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOYS 42019 AND 42020 IN
THE NW GULF. REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THE FORECAST GALE FOR THE SW GULF.  WINDS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WERE FROM THE SE TO S AT 10-15
KT...INCREASING TO 15 -20 KT AND HIGHER AT ELEVATED PLATFORMS
CLOSER TO THE AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
AND GULF COAST. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP RAPIDLY
EASTWARD AND EXTEND FROM THE W COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA BY SAT NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER
TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
NEAR 09N96W DOMINATED THE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN NW OF AN UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS WHICH EXTENDED FROM
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 11N73W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED W OF
THE TROUGH AXIS FOCUSED IN AN AREA BETWEEN 67W-80W.  AT THE
SURFACE...WINDS WERE GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH AT SPEEDS OF 10-
15 KT...LOCALLY 20 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA PER
1414 AND 1504 UTC ASCAT A AND B PASSES. THE SAME ASCAT PASSES
INDICATED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
S OF 19N W OF 85W AND FUNNELING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
GENERALLY FAIR SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE BASIN EXCEPT AN AREA OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MID CLOUDS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN
INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI. LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED THAT THE STORMS
WERE WEAKENING. THESE STORM WERE ABLE TO DEVELOP IN PART TO THE
ABSENCE OF THE TRADE WIND INVERSION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.70 INCHES AS NOTED ON THE 12 UTC SANTO DOMINGO
RAWINDSONDE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC REMAINED AMPLIFIED WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDING
NE THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 30N70W. A DOWNSTREAM SHARP MID-
TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED SW FROM 32N58W TO 24N63W TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM 28N55W TO
22N50W WAS MOVING NE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM A BROAD RIDGE COVERED THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN
30W AND 55W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH E OF 25W. AT THE
SURFACE...A SPRAWLING 1036 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 35N48W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
EXTENDING FROM 31N26W TO 27N40W AND CONTINUED AS A SHEAR AXIS TO
28N50W TO 30N58W. A FAIRLY DEEP 998 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED
INLAND OVER CENTRAL ALGERIA NEAR 30N03E. TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE ATLANTIC
IS PRODUCING STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO.
THESE WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW GALE FORCE. REFER TO THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB
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