[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI APR 01 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST
OF MOROCCO IN AGADIR UNTIL 02/1200 UTC.

A GALE IS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

NORTHERLY WINDS W OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WILL PRODUCE A GALE. ON 02/0900 UTC...COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM 30N86W TO 22N95W TO 18.5N95W. NW TO N WINDS 30 TO 35 KT ARE
FORECAST S OF 24N W OF FRONT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THE GALE WILL
PERSIST UNTIL 03/0000 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WEST AFRICA NEAR 06N11W TO
02N18W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N18W TO 00N26W TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 04S39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
00N-04N BETWEEN 12W-26W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 02S-06S BETWEEN 30W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
FROM S LOUISIANA AT 29N91W TO NE MEXICO AT 25N97W. 20-25 KT NE
WINDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AT 30N86W AND E TEXAS AT 29N96W. FURTHER S...A TINY
1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED SE OF TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 21N97W WITH 15
KT CYCLONIC WINDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 10-15 KT
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER N TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE
COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH
CONVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE OVER THE SW GULF. SEE ABOVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA PRODUCING 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W TO
INCLUDE PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WITH AXIS ALONG 60W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

SHOWERS ARE ADVECTING OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. HAITI IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST
W OF 70W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1037 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
35N47W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM
31N29W TO 27N40W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES TO 28N50W TO 30N57W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE.
A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 36N15W. A
999 MB LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER ALGERIA NEAR 28N01W. A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO
WITH A GALE. SEE ABOVE. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-
50W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO 31N20W
WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST DUE TO PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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