[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 22.9N 45.5W AT 26/0300
UTC OR ABOUT 1025 NM E-NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING
N-NW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-24N
BETWEEN 42W-45W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 30W/31W FROM 5N-13N MOVING W 5-10 KT
OF THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF MODERATE/DEEP MOISTURE. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-12N
BETWEEN 30W-36W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N16W ALONG 12N24W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
8N30W/ THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE WAVE NEAR 6N33W AND CONTINUES
ALONG 5N39W TO 7N49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST
OF W AFRICA S OF 11N E OF 10W AND WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM
5N24W TO 6N27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ALONG THE
TEXAS/MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS GIVING THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT AND
CREATING A MOIST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 24N87W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
SLIGHTLY W INTO THE W/CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SUN WITH A LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH SUN THEN MOVE N THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA
INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 14N79W
TO 17N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 77W TO OVER CUBA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN. CLEAR SKIES COVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PULSE OFF
COLOMBIA AND W VENEZUELA AT NIGHT THROUGH MON.

...HISPANIOLA...
THE EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED LEAVING THE
ISLAND WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. LESS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR
SAT AND SUN BY DAYTIME HEATING COULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE
AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AND THE ATLC COAST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA ALONG 30N79W TO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 25N77W AND IS
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG 75W/76W FROM 25N-
30N GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60/75 EITHER SIDE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS
OVER THE SW ATLC S OF 25N W OF 72W WITH A NARROW UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 25N74W TO 31N73W. AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED N OF
HISPANIOLA NEAR 28N69W AND EXTENDS S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THIS
UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 69W FROM 23N-29N
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-30N
BETWEEN 60W-70W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 40W
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 31N31W. THE EASTERN MOST SURFACE
TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE SAT WHILE THE WESTERN SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUN THEN DRIFT NW ON MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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