[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261214
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 23.4N 46.1W AT 26/0900
UTC OR ABOUT 1005 NM E-NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING
NW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-24N
BETWEEN 42W-46W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 31W/32W FROM 5N-13N MOVING W NEAR 5
KT OF THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF MODERATE/DEEP MOISTURE. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-12N
BETWEEN 27W-38W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 11N23W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
10N30W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA S OF 11N E OF 13W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 25W-
28W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE SW
COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN 10W-12W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ALONG THE
TEXAS/MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS GIVING THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT AND
CREATING A MOIST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 23N87W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
ACROSS THE YUCATAN SUN THEN MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE W ATLC
COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE
ALOFT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG TO
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN N
OF 13N W OF 78W INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W
ALONG 11N79W TO COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N BETWEEN 78W-81W. A LARGE
UPPER LOW CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E
CARIBBEAN. CLEAR SKIES COVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 74W. FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PULSE OFF COLOMBIA AND W VENEZUELA AT
NIGHT THROUGH MON. BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE YUCATAN SUN AND DRIFT N INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH MON.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MONA PASSAGE.
LESS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY THROUGH SUN BUT DAYTIME
HEATING COULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND
AND ALONG THE ATLC COAST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N79W TO THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS NEAR 25N76W AND IS SUPPORTING A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N77W TO 24N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
45/60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE SW ATLC S OF 25N W OF 72W
WITH A NARROW UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 25N74W TO 32N74W.
AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 28N68W AND EXTENDS S OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 30N68W TO 23N69W WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 64W-69W AND
WITHIN 30/45 NM OF A LINE FROM 22N68W TO THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR
18N67W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 57W-62W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC
E OF 40W ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 30N30W. THE EASTERN
MOST SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TODAY WHILE THE WESTERN MOST
SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN THEN DRIFT NW ON MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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