[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA AT 25/2100 UTC IS NEAR
22.5N 45.5W. IDA IS MOVING NW...OR 325 DEGREES...AT 5 KT. THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS IS 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. IDA IS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH SHEAR...AND DRY AIR ON ALL SIDES EXCEPT THE
EAST. IDA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS.
PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE
CENTER FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 42W-45W. SEE THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES
ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS
HEADER MIATCPAT5. ALSO SEE THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED UNDER
THE WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT5.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 13N30W TO 4N31W
MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA OF
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE SSMI COMPOSITE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-12N
BETWEEN 29W-32W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH TRAVERSES W AFRICA AND ENTERS THE ATLANTIC
NEAR 12N16W THEN CONTINUES TO 8N29W. AN ITCZ IS W OF A TROPICAL
WAVE FROM 7N32W TO 6N40W TO 8N50W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN
5W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 24W-
28W...AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 32W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO IS UNDER A MOIST
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
YUCATAN PENINSULA MOVING NW. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION COVERS THE PENINSULA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER S FLORIDA AND W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR 30N97W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
E OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE GULF.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO FORM N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUNDAY WITH
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...SIMILAR MOIST UNSTABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS WITH
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W...WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MODELS ARE FORECASTING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CONTINUE AND POSSIBLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HAITI.
EXPECT LESS PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER
HISPANIOLA WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION N OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM 30N78W TO THE N BAHAMAS AT 24N78W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 74W-79W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS FURTHER E FROM 29N68W TO 21N69W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 64W-70W. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IDA IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
SEE ABOVE. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N31W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N67W ENHANCING CONVECTION. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N37W PRODUCING SHEAR OVER
IDA. A THIRD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED AT 29N23W PRODUCING
SHOWERS E OF THE CENTER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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