[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190521
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 13.7N 37.5W AT 19/0300 UTC
OR ABOUT 795 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING NW AT 6 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 32W-39W. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS CENTERED NEAR 18.3N 48.3W AT 19/0300
UTC OR ABOUT 765 NM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVING W-NW AT 8
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY N OF THE CENTER FROM 17N-20N
BETWEEN 45W-50W. A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST...AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
19N87W INTO THE EPAC NEAR 10N88W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS MAINLY S OF 19N AND
W OF 83W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN AFRICA AT 09N13W TO THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 06N26W. THE ITCZ REMAINS INDISCERNIBLE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS MAINLY W OF 19W BETWEEN
06N-11N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PREVAILS ACROSS NORTH MEXICO AND
EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM SE US ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WATERS. WITH
THIS...UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN IS MOVING ACROSS
THE SE GULF MAINLY S OF 25N. AT THE SURFACE...A 1006 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA AT 26N82W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW CENTER MAINLY
W OF 83W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
SURFACE LOW TO ADVECT CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
WHILE DISSIPATING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXITING THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER
TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN S OF 14N. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS LIGHT TO GENTLE
TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 15N BETWEEN 66W-72W
WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA
AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE BASIN ARE T.S. IDA AND THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE. FOR MORE DETAILS...PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS
THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N78W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE
CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF 28N BETWEEN 72W-78W. UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 67W-73W. TO THE E...AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
25N-31N BETWEEN 43W-55W. A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED N OF OUR AREA
EXTENDS S ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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