[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 190020
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS CENTERED NEAR 18.0N 47.3W AT 18/2100
UTC OR ABOUT 810 NM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVING W-NW AT 5
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY N OF THE CENTER
FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 44W-50W. A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST...
AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SAT.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN IS CENTER NEAR 13.4N 37.3W AT 18/2100
UTC OR ABOUT 675 NM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT
7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN
33W-38W. A STRENGTHENING TREND IS FORECAST... AND THE DEPRESSION
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
18N86W TO CENTRAL HONDURAS AT 14N87W TO THE EPAC WATERS MOVING W
AT 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND EL SALVADOR FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN
82W AND 89W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN AFRICA AT 9N13W TO THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 6N22W. THE ITCZ REMAINS INDISCERNIBLE.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 11W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC..A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA AT
26N82W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION CONVECTION IS OVER S
FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 80W-83W.
A 1012 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER E TEXAS NEAR 30N94W PRODUCING
FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A VERY SHARP TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM N FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E
OF THE AXIS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE WESTERN GULF W OF THE AXIS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO ADVECT CONVECTION TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THEN DISSIPATE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. SLIGHT
TO MODERATE BREEZE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN DUE TO A RATHER LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS
ARE PREDOMINATELY 6 FT OR LESS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA... JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA...N
COLOMBIA..AND NW VENEZUELA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 15N73W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE BASIN ARE THE TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS. SEE
ABOVE. AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST
OF N FLORIDA NEAR 30N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
30N-32N BETWEEN 74W-76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
OVER THE N BAHAMAS. A LARGE 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N54W. OF SIGNIFICANCE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N55W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N-31N BETWEEN 43W-55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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