[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191141
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 14.4N 38.5W AT 19/0900 UTC
OR ABOUT 842 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING NW AT 9 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-19N BETWEEN 32W-42W. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS CENTERED NEAR 18.5N 49.4W AT 19/0900
UTC OR ABOUT 710 NM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVING W-NW AT 10
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 45W-49W. A WEAKENING
TREND IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN AFRICA AT 10N14W TO THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 12N28W. THE ITCZ REMAINS INDISCERNIBLE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS MAINLY W OF 20W BETWEEN
06N-10N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PREVAILS ACROSS NORTH MEXICO AND
EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM SE US ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WATERS. WITH
THIS...UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN IS MOVING ACROSS
THE SE GULF MAINLY S OF 25N AND E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AT
THE SURFACE...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA AT
26N82W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE LOW CENTER MAINLY W OF 83W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A
LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO ADVECT CONVECTION ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE DISSIPATING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH MAINLY S OF 11N BETWEEN 75W-80W. FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT S
OF 15N BETWEEN 66W-72W WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA N THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE BASIN ARE T.S. IDA AND THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE. FOR MORE DETAILS...PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS
THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N78W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE
LOW CENTER ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SURFACE LOW
OVER THE SE GULF. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM N OF 24N
AND W OF 67W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N-
33N BETWEEN 42W-54W. A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED N OF OUR AREA
EXTENDS S ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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