[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE 12-HOUR FORECAST...BASED ON THE SYNOPSIS THAT IS VALID AT
25/0000 UTC...CONSISTS OF A 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
29N95W...AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 19N95W. EXPECT
GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET
TO 9 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. THE 18-HOUR FORECAST
ALSO CONSISTS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/ FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 11N15W TO 06N20W AND 05N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N24W
TO 05N30W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 02N TO 13N BETWEEN 14W AND 33W...
AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W.

ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 37W FROM 10N TO 15N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 37W AND 41W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W.

A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 49W/50W FROM 10N TO 14N.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 09N TO 12N
BETWEEN 47W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPINS AWAY FROM THE WESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO...NEAR THE AREA WHERE PATRICIA MADE LANDFALL. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS
OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES...FROM SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AS A STATIONARY FRONT...TO A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 27.5N 96.5W...CONTINUING AS A COLD FRONT FROM THE 1004 MB
LOW CENTER...INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR 25N99W...AND
NORTHWESTWARD TO 28N104W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N94W 26N95W
22N98W. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN GENERAL ALSO COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE MIDDLE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SOUTH CAROLINA...ALONG 80W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N80W.

...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N66W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO A 24N68W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO HISPANIOLA...TO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 16N
TO 21N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 82W.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...THAT IS AWAY FROM THE AREA OF THE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS ACCOMPANYING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
HISPANIOLA TROUGH.

CURRENT CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...THE
OBSERVATION FOR 25/0000 UTC SHOWED FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE
OBSERVATION FOR 25/0000 UTC FOR BARAHONA SHOWED RAINSHOWERS WITH
THUNDER. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE IN LA
ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD
AT 30 TO 36 HOURS OF THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE
GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA SOLIDLY FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL
COVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF HISPANIOLA...AND ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE
FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. PURELY CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS. CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS HISPANIOLA
BY THE END OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS. SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR DAY TWO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 11N78W IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BEYOND 09N84W IN
SOUTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
THE GREATER ANTILLES NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE U.S.A. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN 32N66W-TO-24N68W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER-TO
HISPANIOLA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N59W...TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N60W...
TO 26N61W AND 24N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 24N62W TO
20N65W...CUTTING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF PUERTO
RICO...INTO THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 29N70W AND 29N75W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
FROM 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 32N BETWEEN 52W AND 69W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 20N33W 27N42W BEYOND 32N46W. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 30W AND 60W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
33N16W NEAR THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...ACROSS THE CANARY
ISLANDS...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA THAT IS FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 33W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 34N11W TO 31N14W.  CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 22N20W 20N23W 17N29W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 29N44W AND 17N50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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