[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N13W ALONG 6N16W TO 5N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 5N36W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
AFRICA FROM 7N-12N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 15W-23W. SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE TROPICS
ALONG 36W/37W FROM 9N-14N WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 30W-35W. A
SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IN THE TROPICS IS FROM 14N49W TO 11N50W
WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 46W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF ANCHORED OVER S
MEXICO NEAR 18N98W AND EXTENDING THE RIDGE AXIS NE TO OVER THE E
CONUS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A SHARP SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH
IS MOVING ACROSS TEXAS ACCOMPANIED BY A COMPLEX SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY INLAND OVER TEXAS AND CONSISTS OF A FRONT...AND
SURFACE LOW AND WITH THE REMNANTS OF PATRICIA FROM THE E PACIFIC
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. OVER THE GULF WATERS...SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-26N
W OF 96W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF LINE FROM VERMILION BAY
LOUISIANA ALONG 26N94W TO 23N96W. SE SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF
23N W OF 85W. THE LOW INLAND OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT THEN INLAND
OVER LOUISIANA EARLY MON. THIS WILL PRODUCE NEAR GALE OR MINIMAL
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NW AND N/CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SUN. THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO A FRONTAL TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GULF MID WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 82W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDS S OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN. A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC
TO JUST E OF PUERTO RICO GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 15N E OF 67W TO OVER PUERTO
RICO AND E TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN E OF
75W. THE W/CENTRAL ATLC FRONT WILL SHIFT E SUN AND BECOME
DIFFUSE THEN DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH MON. GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH MON NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE
GREATER ANTILLES SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC TO JUST E OF PUERTO RICO CONTINUES TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS
EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUN THEN
DIMINISHING FROM W TO E AS THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SHIFT E. THEN FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN DRIFT W OF MON BRINGING THE MOISTURE BACK MON NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1008
MB LOW NEAR 31N61W THROUGH A WEAK 1010 MB LOW NEAR 25N61W TO
JUST E OF PUERTO RICO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF
20N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BETWEEN
60W-67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER A BROAD
AREA FROM 15N-30N BETWEEN 52W-61W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE FRONT FROM 23N-27N
BETWEEN 64W-70W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF
53W ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES. THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC FRONT WILL DRIFT E SUN AND BECOME DIFFUSE THEN DRIFT
WESTWARD THROUGH MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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