[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251124
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 994 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N96W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO 22N98W. EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS AND
SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 10 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE
COLD FRONT.  NW WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. PLEASE READ
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/ FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND...PASSING THROUGH GUINEA...
AND STOPPING AT THE COAST. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THE COASTAL
SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 06N15W 05N24W AND 06N35W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 03N TO 15N BETWEEN 15W AND 29W. ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 06N TO 07N BETWEEN 29W AND 33W.

ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 36W/37W FROM 10N TO 15N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 28W AND
36W...AND FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 38W AND 41W. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W.

A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 40W/41W FROM 04N TO 08N IN THE
SCATTEROMETER WIND FIELD. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS
OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES...FROM SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA TO
THE COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS AND MEXICO. A 994 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 27N96W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 94W AND 97W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 93W AND 95W IN THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N78W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N79W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN
HAITI AND JAMAICA NEAR 18N75W.

...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N66W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO A 24N68W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO HISPANIOLA...TO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND 81W.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...THAT IS AWAY FROM THE AREA OF THE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS ACCOMPANYING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
HISPANIOLA TROUGH.

CURRENT CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...A MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILING...AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN BARAHONA.
FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN
SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN PUNTA
CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD
AT 30 TO 36 HOURS OF THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE
GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA SOLIDLY FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL
COVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF HISPANIOLA...AND ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE
FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. PURELY CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS. CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS HISPANIOLA
BY THE END OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS. SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR DAY TWO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 09N80W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND 08N82W IN PANAMA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ALONG 75W AND THE COASTS
OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
THE GREATER ANTILLES NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE U.S.A. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN 32N66W-TO-24N68W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER-TO
HISPANIOLA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1010
MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N59W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N61W AND 23N62W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 23N62W TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
PUERTO RICO...AND INTO THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 12N
TO 14N BETWEEN 62W AND 64W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 60W AND 62W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 15N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 32N BETWEEN
50W AND 70W...AND ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND
70W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
33N16W NEAR THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...ACROSS THE CANARY
ISLANDS...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA THAT IS FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 33W. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N10W TO 31N14W.  CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND
20W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 22N20W 20N23W 17N29W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N40W...TO 25N49W...TO THE AREA OF MARTINIQUE AND SAINT
LUCIA IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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